The Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals are in a similar place heading into the I-70 series this weekend. Kansas City holds a wild-card slot in the American League, while the Cardinals are just outside of the final wild-card spot in the National League.
Kansas City is starting newly acquired right-hander Michael Lorenzen on Friday at Kauffman Stadium. He has some discouraging peripherals and could possibly just be more of an innings eater for the Royals over the second half of the season. His opponent has a shockingly similar profile — Miles Mikolas is almost the exact same pitcher, except he walks fewer hitters. Kansas City added relievers at the deadline and has a better lineup at the moment, so backing them at home makes the most sense.
Cardinals vs Royals odds for Friday have the Royals as -120 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-125o / +105u). Find my betting preview for the series opener of the Show-Me Series below, which includes my Cardinals vs Royals prediction and pick.
Cardinals vs Royals Odds & Prediction
| St Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +165 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -200 |
Cardinals at Royals Starting Pitcher Analysis
| RHP Miles Mikolas (STL) | Stat | RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 5.12 / 4.46 | ERA /xERA | 3.69 / 4.61 |
| 4.24 / 4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 5.03 / 4.97 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 12% | K-BB% | 6.8% |
| 41.7% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 108 | Location+ | 97 |
DJ James' Cardinals-Royals Preview & Prediction
Cardinals Betting Preview: Fade Mikolas
Mikolas isn't very good. He has a 5.12 ERA and a 4.46 xERA. His average exit velocity is 88.5 mph and he has a below-average hard-hit rate. His ground-ball rate is also a little below average, and he is striking out only 16.1% of hitters. He does limit barrels and may expect some positive regression down the stretch, but he is nothing to write home about.
Offensively, the Cardinals haven't been great against righties lately. They have a 101 wRC+ with a 6.5% walk rate and a 20% strikeout rate in the past month and only have three hitters with an xwOBA over .325.
The Cardinals' relievers have a 4.02 xFIP in the past month with only a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. Those walk and strikeout numbers are eerily similar to Mikolas, so the Royals shouldn't be missing the ball too much on Friday.
Royals Betting Preview: Witt Leads Hot Offense
Lorenzen’s 3.69 ERA against a 4.61 xERA isn't sustainable. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are comparable to Mikolas'. His ground-ball rate is also below average. Lorenzen may strike out a few more than Mikolas, but his walk rate is an area of concern as he's walking 11.3% of opposing hitters. That could put some strain on the Royals’ relief staff.
The Royals' lineup has been good and boasts a 122 wRC+, a 5.9% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate in the past month against righties. They have six bats with an xwOBA over .340 and Bobby Witt Jr. and Paul DeJong are both over .400.
The Royals’ bullpen has a 3.87 xFIP with a 21% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate. Interestingly enough, both bullpens don't walk many hitters or produce many strikeouts. The Royals have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP and should have enough artillery behind Lorenzen if he has trouble finding the strike zone.
Cardinals vs Royals Prediction
Both of these starting pitchers have a tendency to look anemic on the bump. However, the difference is negligible, unless Lorenzen can't throw strikes. That said, the Royals should have the better bullpen in this matchup. Kansas City has also been more successful against righties lately and should continue to do damage from the top of the batting order. Look for the Royals to pull out a win at home and bet them to -135.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (Play to -135) |
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Moneyline
I believe there's value in betting the Royals on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm backing the Royals moneyline, but will pass on the run line in this matchup.
Over/Under
The Cardinals vs. Royals over/under is set at nine — a pass for me.
