The Texas Rangers needed a wild come-from-behind victory to avoid the sweep in Boston on Wednesday night. The Rangers scored three runs in the ninth with two outs to send the game into extra innings and eventually won it in the 10th.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins couldn't complete the sweep against the Royals, losing the series finale 4-1.
Tonight, the Rangers travel back home to kick off a four-game set with the Twins. It's Bailey Ober versus Cody Bradford, and oddsmakers make the Rangers a slight underdog at +105 and the total is set at 8.5.
I was able to compile a strong 11-1 four-leg SGP for tonight's matchup.
John Feltman's Twins vs Rangers MLB Parlay Picks, Odds for Thursday
- Bailey Ober Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Under 4.5 F5 Innings (-132)
- Jose Miranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Marcus Semien to Record a Hit (-230)
Parlay Odds: +1146 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Bailey Ober Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Ober has been terrific for the Twins in 2024, including an improved strikeout rate. However, he draws a matchup against a tough Rangers offense on Thursday.
In 45 career plate appearances, the Rangers have only struck out six times against Ober, which equals a 13.3% strikeout rate. They also only strike out roughly eight times per game, which is top-10 in the MLB.
I'm also puzzled at this line, considering Ober has struck out nine, seven and 11 batters in his last three starts. The Rangers are tough to strike out, but my instincts are telling me that Vegas has set the line low for a reason.
Ober's whiff and chase rates have increased since last season, but it's not the best matchup for him to rack up the punch outs.
Besides that, the Rangers' offense is red-hot, so he may be forced into some difficult innings early on that could potentially force him out of the game.
Under 4.5 F5 Innings (-132)
We're fading Ober's strikeouts in the first leg, but that doesn't mean he can't be effective if he does not compile strikeouts.
The red-hot Rangers offense is bound to cool off, and tonight is a good night for that to come to fruition.
Not only is Ober's whiff and chase rates improved, but he's also limiting hard contact. He's always been a fly-ball pitcher, but since he's not getting hit hard, there's great reason to believe he can be efficient tonight.
Bradford has spent most of the season on the shelf, but he's been effective when he's been on the mound. Bradford has an excellent strikeout and walk rate, to go along with high chase and whiff rates.
In limited action in 2024, his opposing xBA is .231. He's allowed a decent amount of hard contact, but if he keeps the ball in the yard, he should be in line for an effective start.
I trust both of these starting pitchers, hence why I'm targeting the F5 inning total. Both of these bullpens are questionable at best, so I could see the game getting out of hand in the latter stages.
Jose Miranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Jose Miranda draws a great matchup against Bradford. He’s been an absolute menace against right-handed pitching this season, batting .343 with 29 extra-base hits.
Miranda ranks in the 92nd percentile in squared-up percentage and his LD% has increased gradually over the last couple of seasons.
Bradford throws a fastball 52% of the time, which Miranda has thrived against. He possesses a .302 batting average, .332 xWOBA and .423 xSLG.
I do believe the scoring will be low, but I have a hunch Miranda will take advantage of the good matchup and compile at least one extra-base hit.
Marcus Semien to Record a Hit (-230)
Marcus Semien has dominated against Ober in the past, going 5-for-9 lifetime against him. Semien only has nine hits in his last 48 at-bats, but he’s due to pick up the slack.
His xBA is .265, which means he's performing worse than he should be (.240 AVG). Semien has great metrics against the fastball, (.301 xBA/.374xWOBA) but also has a .296 xBA against cutters.
Ober throws fastballs and cutters roughly 60% of the time, so Semien should be able to take advantage in one of his plate appearances against him.
I expect Semien to anchor the SGP and continue his success against Ober with at least one base knock.
