| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
The Minnesota Twins took care of business on Friday evening, scoring nine runs en route to victory to begin their three-game set against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers offense struggled once again, but they’ll look to get back on track on Saturday evening.
It’s a great pitching matchup on deck, with Joe Ryan on the mound for the Twins, and AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal for the Tigers.
There’s been a lot of speculation about Skubal getting traded before the deadline, so it's possible this could be his last start as a member of the Tigers. Twins vs Tigers odds have the Twins as -118 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 6.5 (-110/-110).
Read more below for my Twins vs Tigers best bet for Saturday night.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have a tall task at hand on Saturday night against Skubal. They have not done well against him in the past, batting .235 as a team over 81 at-bats.
Byron Buxton has 2 HRs in 9 plate appearances against Skubal, so keep that in mind during the early portion of the ballgame. Despite the poor results against Skubal, the Twins are a far superior offense against left-handed pitching.
They are batting .279 as a team against southpaws with a .451 SLG%. Not to say Skubal is your typical everyday left-handed pitcher, but it’s encouraging to say the least.
Joe Ryan gets the ball for the Twinkies, and he’s been a subject of misfortune thus far. Ryan enters the start with a 3.65 ERA but possesses a sparkling 2.95 xERA.
His elite strikeout-to-walk ratio is a reason he is amongst the game's best-starting pitchers, and opposing hitters have an extremely difficult time squaring up the baseball against him.
Opposing hitters have a xBA of .218, and only a 37% hard-hit rate. He’s done well against the Tigers in the past, holding them to a .200 AVG over 55 at-bats.
It’s as good as a scenario the Twins could ask for, especially against a Cy Young candidate.
Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball, and his metrics back it up. Skubal enters Saturday night’s start with the highest WAR (4.5) amongst all starting pitchers in baseball and the lowest ERA at 2.34.
Skubal ranks above the 90th percentile in the following categories:
- Fastball Velo
- Hard Hit Rate
- Whiff Rate
- K and BB Rate
- Average exit Velo
That’s enough to sell you? Skubal also has a 48% GB rate, which is extremely rare for an elite strikeout pitcher. When opposing hitters make contact, the baseball is going on the ground roughly 50% of the time, and it’s most likely not squared up.
The Twins hit lefties well, but as I alluded to before Skubal is not your prototypical lefty. The guy is that good, and I think the Tigers need all of King Midas’ silver to consider trading him before the July 31st deadline.
The Tigers offense has struggled big-time as of late, and things do not get easier on Saturday. Joe Ryan is due for positive regression moving forward, and he’s dominated these Tigers’ hitters in the past.
Detroit is hitting .233 against right-handed pitching, but luckily they may only need to scratch across a couple of runs to provide enough support for Skubal.
Twins vs Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I can’t side with either team in the matchup, but we have yet another slam-dunk F5 under the spot. The Twins bats were on fire last night, but they’re in for a rude awakening tonight.
Despite their success against southpaws in 2024, I’m going to chalk up Skubal as an exception, especially since the Twins hitters do not have great numbers against him lifetime.
I have more faith in the Twins’ bullpen to seal the game late, but the Tigers’ bullpen is far less trustworthy. It’s also nice to know that Ryan is due for better luck moving forward on the mound and he has dismantled the Tigers in the past himself.
I’d be stunned to see tonight’s game be high-scoring in the early going. Do not overthink it.
