White Sox vs Tigers Odds & Moneyline Prediction
| Chicago White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +148 |
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -175 |
Kenta Maeda may be on the outs. He has not been particularly sharp for the Detroit Tigers. The veteran right-hander has allowed more walks than he has in the past and has not been striking anyone out. In addition, he still continues to get the ball in the air.
On Saturday, Maeda will face an extremely weak Chicago White Sox offense, which has fallen off a cliff in recent years. Drew Thorpe will get the start for the White Sox, and he is a glimpse into the future of Chicago’s rotation as a top-100 prospect, according to MLB.com. Thorpe does not throw hard and did not do well in his last appearance, but he has a plus changeup and displays much more athleticism on the mound than fans may be used to.
Let's dive into White Sox vs Tigers odds and my Saturday moneyline prediction.
Chicago White Sox
Thorpe did well in AA Birmingham before being called up. In 11 starts, he produced a 1.35 ERA over 60 innings and was able to pitch pretty deep into games. In his first start in Seattle, Thorpe held the Mariners to one earned over five innings pitched. The Diamondbacks tagged him in his next outing, but since Thorpe has been shown to limit barrels, look for him to straighten out here.
The White Sox have an 85 wRC+ off righties in June. Luckily for them, Luis Robert Jr. is back in the middle of the lineup. This team won't walk much, but it does have four bats above a .325 xwOBA in June off righties, with two more over .310. That doesn't represent a potent lineup, but with the way Maeda is pitching, he could make it look like one. In addition, given Chicago hits plenty of ground balls, Maeda may help the White Sox keep the ball in the air.
Chicago has a 3.53 xFIP in relief in June. The bullpen has posted a walk rate of 9.9% but is also striking out more than 26% of batters. They have four arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so if Thorpe can manage five-plus innings, as he was accustomed to before his last start, he can do the bullpen a favor.
Detroit Tigers
Maeda has a 6.02 ERA and xERA over 5.00. His Average Exit Velocity is almost 89 mph, even though he has an above-average Hard-Hit Rate. He ranks in the 17th percentile in strikeout rate, which could again be a plus for the White Sox lineup. At 36 years old, Maeda could be due for a transition to the bullpen in the future.
The Tigers are somehow worse than the White Sox at the plate against righties in June. They have a 73 wRC+ with a 6.3% walk rate and 25.4% strikeout rate. Those numbers are somewhat comparable to Chicago, but Detroit only has four bats above a .310 xwOBA. The lineup edge should go to the White Sox, with comparable starting pitching.
Finally, Detroit’s bullpen has not been too strong this month, with a bullpen xFIP of 4.11. The Tigers do have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, but seeing as Maeda may not pitch as deep here, the relief edge should go to the White Sox.
White Sox vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Maeda has fallen off as a starting pitcher, and age may be to blame. Meanwhile, Thorpe has shown flashes of someone who could be a fixture in the White Sox rotation. He has good off-speed stuff and can throw deep when called upon.
Take the White Sox as road underdogs here at +134 and bet them to +115.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+134 via FanDuel | Bet to +115)
