Yankees vs Red Sox Odds & Prediction | Sunday Night Baseball
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
The Yankees ended their four-game slide with a monumental win over the Red Sox last night, and in doing so, they set up a decisive AL East rubber match against Boston on Sunday Night Baseball.
It'll be Luis Gil to take the ball once again for the Yankees in the midst of a massive rut, one in which has now lasted three starts and continued even against a poor Reds offense last week. Kutter Crawford, who continues to pitch well, will be heading to the bump for Boston, aiming for a sixth straight quality start.
Can New York build some momentum as this series comes to a close at Yankee Stadium? Let's break down the matchup in our Sunday Night Baseball pick and prediction for Yankees vs Red Sox tonight, July 7.
New York Yankees
Many have attempted to diagnose the struggles of Gil, who owned a 2.03 ERA through his first 14 starts of the season and has pitched to a 14.90 ERA in his last three, which have spanned just 9 and 2/3 innings. Sure, the walks are up and the strikeouts are down as he generates fewer swings and misses. The expected numbers have spiked in his arsenal. He's now allowed a homer in his last three starts. All of these things are bad.
The simple answer, though, could be that he's beginning to tire in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees never planned to pitch Gil more than 80-100 innings, but his numbers were simply too good to consider slowing him down. Now, we may be beginning to see why teams handle these post-TJ guys with caution, and it would seem Gil is tired and throwing from a slightly different arm slot to over-compensate for his physical limitations.
The good news for the Yankees is that, offensively, even prior to Saturday's breakout their wRC+ was still right around the top-10 in the league over the past week. They're still sporting excellent strikeout and walk numbers, and it's just been lack of power that's done them in. Even then, though, with a barrage of home runs on Saturday they're back up near .200 in ISO in that span.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox remain a worse team at the plate than they were the last time they stepped to the Yankees. They're down to 19th over the last week of play with a 98 wRC+, and while strikeouts continue to be a massive issue, the bigger story is that they're struggling to hit for power.
It's been a bit easier to hit for power against Gil of late, but Boston's 26.3% strikeout rate and pretty middling 8.8% walk rate in the last week is going to make life a little more difficult. They've also been around 150 points worse in OPS to fly-ball pitchers versus ground-ball types, which is a stunning gap, and Gil loves pitching to contact in the air.
On the bump, Crawford has been stellar of late. He's struck out seven or more in his last four starts and has lasted six innings in each of them, never allowing more than three earned runs. Like Gil, he's pitched to plenty of fly balls — and that's a trend that has continued to progress throughout the months with his fly-ball rate jumping to 36.5% in June and 50% in his only start of July.
Crawford did punch out nine Yankees the last time he faced them, though he allowed two home runs and three runs in total on the evening. He does limit walks fairly well, but allowing fly balls can be unsustainable against this team — as we saw last time out against New York.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm of the belief that Gil is rather hopeless here — at least in 2024. He needs some rest after being taxed significantly in his first year back from Tommy John, and his strikeout prowess is beginning to fade while he struggles once again with control.
Boston may not be the most patient bunch, but the Red Sox have hit for some power recently, and should have a fair chance of hitting Gil even in an arduous matchup.
New York, meanwhile, is also hitting for power and limiting strikeouts pretty well, which should give them a solid chance of posting a better result here against Crawford than its previous go with the ball generally being in a dangerous position when it comes back into play.
I expect both men to allow some home runs here, and with how Gil has been running I don't think he's done anything to earn the respect of oddsmakers he's getting with a game total of 8.5.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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