Heat vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - March 9, 2024

Heat at Thunder

1:00 am • KSBI

Miami Heat

4-6

100

100 - 107

Oklahoma City Thunder

10-2

107

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 4-6	+8	+8.5-106	o226.5-110	+295
Thunder 10-2	u225.5	-8.5-114	u226.5-110	-375

Saturday 1:00 a.m.

March 09, 2024

Paycom CenterOklahoma City

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 Ast+100

2+ 1Q AST

C.Holmgren o27.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.58u

C.Martin o9.5 Pts-115

0.57u

#Tailing @TheBMatt

C.Martin o9.5 Pts-117

1.17u

Getting the exact same number as last night (9.5) where Martin scored 13 pts while playing 32 minutes. Josh Richardson, Tyler Herro, and Kevin Love have all been ruled out again, so I’m going to continue to back Martin points. In the four games this season w/o those three players, Martin has scored 13, 18, 15, and 13 pts, so I like Martin to go over this line again tonight.

MIA +8.5-108

0.93u

C.Holmgren o15.5 Pts-113

0.57u

#Tailing @JoeDellera

C.Holmgren o15.5 Pts-113

Via Matty Chucks

C.Holmgren o27.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

1.15u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander u30.5 Pts-120

$60.00

J.Williams u19.5 Pts-125

Selling high here. Jalen Williams has scored 22+ points in five of his last six games vs. inferior opponents that cannot contain primary BH drivers (HOU, PHX, LAL). Jalen should get his toughest test against the Miami Heat. 33% of his FGM come from using the Pick & Roll w/ Chet at top of the key, following with a drive or pull-up but MIA defends this playtype at the 3rd best rate. The other 22% of his PTS come from transition (MIA defends 2nd best) & 44.7 of FGM at the rim where MIA allows 2nd fewest PITP since All Star Break. Jalen Williams averages 17.2 PPG going under 20 points in 11 of the 15 games where he faced a top-10 pick & roll ball handler defense. He scored 19 PTS vs. MIA in last meeting including 4 Q2 MIN for SGA & Chet being foul trouble. MIA ranks the best in limiting PPG to drivers. And there could be a blowout potential here. #PlayerProps

OKC -8.5-110

Under 223.5-110

0.91u

Featured Insight
The Heat have allowed 13.0 second chance points per game on the road this season -- T-8th-best in the NBA; the Thunder have averaged 11.4 second chance points per game at home this season -- 3rd-lowest in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Thunder have allowed an eFG% of 52% at home this season -- 3rd-best in the NBA; the Heat have an eFG% of 53% on the road this season -- T-8th-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Thunder are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Thunder are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Thunder are 4-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Thunder' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Thunder' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Thunder	8-4	4-3	4-1	7-4	1-0
Heat	4-6	0-4	4-2	2-4	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Thunder	6-6	4-3	2-3	6-5	0-1
Heat	5-5	2-2	3-3	2-4	3-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Thunder	10-2	N/A	N/A	9-2	1-0
Heat	4-6	N/A	N/A	3-3	1-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 7th	@POR	W 128-120	-13 L	O 225	OKC -784
Mar 5th	@LAL	L 104-116	-1 L	U 240.5	LAL -112
Mar 4th	@PHX	W 118-110	-4.5 W	U 233	OKC -185
Mar 1st	@SAS	L 118-132	-11 L	O 239	SAS -547
Feb 28th	HOU	W 112-95	-10 W	U 234	OKC -429