In his fourth NBA season, Aaron Nesmith has proven to be a valuable two-way contributor for the upstart Pacers. He’s averaged career highs in both minutes and points and has started 40 games on the wing.
However, March was a down month for Nesmith. The Vanderbilt product averaged 14.2 points and rebounds in the month and failed to clear this line in 11 of 14 games.
His minutes have been inconsistent as head coach Rick Carlisle likes to ride the hot-hand, which could mean increased playing time for the likes of Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker or Obi Toppin off the bench.
Additionally, the matchup against the Nets is less than ideal for Nesmith, who has scored 45% of his points this season off catch-and-shoot jump shots. Brooklyn has allowed the ninth-fewest spot-up points per game this season.
Plus, the Nets have played painfully slow all year, especially of late, ranking 24th in team pace over the past 15 games.
Between the opposing defense, pace and inconsistent minutes, we have several outs for the under on this line. Tonight, I have Nesmith projected closer to 15 points and rebounds.
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