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Today
J.Kelly o69.5 Rec Yds-120
TTU
0
7
WSU
1.2u
1st 5:22
This one is going to be a shootout (total set at 66), and Kelly is coming off a 156 yard performance (14 targets and 10 catches), and looks primed to lead TTU in receiving. RB Tahj Brooks comes into this game questionable, and could be limited - but either way, we should see both teams airing it out in this one.
D.Jones o20.5 Pass Comp-125
MIN
@
NYG
1.25u
09/08 5:00 PM
Enter Daniel Jones. Behind a questionable offensive line, a diminished run game (Saquon > Singletary) and his own ACL (I’m anticipating less designed runs) - we should see a litany of easier passes. I’m expecting shorter passes to Nabers to get him the ball too - in addition to WanDale, and checkdowns to Singletary/the TEs. He was over this line in 4/5 full games last season.
J.Sanders o16.5 Rec Yds-120
CAR
@
NO
1.2u
09/08 5:00 PM
He’s starting at TE with the injuries to Tremble and Thomas. Looked very impressive in the preseason and earned the praise of Canales and the Panthers coaches. Out of Texas with great hands and YAC ability. Should be an environment where Panthers will need to throw.
Saints graded well on paper against TEs last season (11th in DVOA), but still allowed a TE over in 13/17 games, allowing 49 ypg to the position.
Coachspeak makes me think Sanders will get some manufactured targets in this one. Johnson and Thielen should have tougher matchups as well against Lattimore and Adebo.
M.Harrison o51.5 Rec Yds-120
ARI
@
BUF
1.2u
09/08 5:00 PM
Taking a rookie in week 1, with no preseason, is a massive risk - but I see this one as worth it. I have MHJ projected around ~75 yards per game this season, and set my target to play this line at 58.5, to err on the side of conservatism. It should be a plus matchup in a favorable passing environment for ARI.
H.Henry u14.5 Longest Reception-110
NE
@
CIN
1.1u
09/08 5:00 PM
- [ ] Under in 10/14 last season
- [ ] ADOT was 9.4 yards, only 13 of his 61 targets traveled 15+ yards
- [ ] Coming off an injury where he missed most of camp - and a new QB + offense. Capable backup with Hooper
- [ ] Uncertain what his role will be in this offense, but more firepower at receiver this season (Douglas year 2, Polk, KJ Osborn)
Z.White o51.5 Rush Yds-114
LV
@
LAC
1.14u
09/08 8:05 PM
VSIN play. Good up to o55.5.
- [ ] Over in 4/4 starts last season
- [ ] 2.4 yards after contact would have been top 5 if he qualified
- [ ] Raiders should have the advantage in the trenches
- [ ] Not much faith in the Chargers offense - Herbert coming off his foot injury, with a weak supporting cast
J.Ferguson o3.5 Recs-128
DAL
@
CLE
1.28u
09/08 8:25 PM
It’s a tough matchup - CLE was #2 in FTN’s DVOA vs TEs - but Ferguson regularly cleared this line last season: 13/18 overall, including 7/7 to finish the season. Running game going to take a hit this season with no Pollard, and CLE is brutal to run on anyway. Dak is implied at 35 pass attempts, and I’m expecting Ferguson to build on the 19% target rate / 21% catch rate he saw the last 7 games. I have him at 7 targets.
R.Dowdle o6.5 Rush Att-135
DAL
@CLE
1.35u
09/08 8:25 PM
Analysis later.
Pending
2-WAY PARLAY-104
1.04u
Two guys who’ve been injured most of the season, but are rounding into form lately.
J.Musgrove o5.5 Ks-174
DET
0
3
SD
FINAL 9/02
G.Cole o4.5 Ks-404
NYY
8
4
TEX
FINAL 9/03
D.Montgomery o11.5 Rush Att-120
LA
@
DET
1.2u
09/09 12:20 AM
This is a line that Montgomery covered in 13/16 full games last season. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs is a threat to his workload, but coming off a hamstring injury in camp, I don’t see the Lions shifting off of their timeshare. Montgomery should continue to see most of the short yardage and red zone work. And the Lions will have a strong advantage in the trenches against the Rams, who ranked 20th in DVOA against the run last season, and lost one of their best run stuffers in Ernest Jones.
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 4-0-0 | 100% | 4.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 18-14-0 | 56% | 1.91u |
| Last 30 Days | 63-69-1 | 47% | -12.96u |
| All Time | 2388-2173-39 | 52% | 29.82u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 347-266-1 | 57% | 57.49u |
| NCAAB | 336-245-4 | 57% | 51.64u |
| OLYMPIC_BASKETBALL | 0-1-0 | 0% | -1.18u |
| NCAAF | 46-42-1 | 52% | -2.29u |
| WNBA | 23-23-2 | 48% | -4.35u |
| MLB | 886-868-13 | 50% | -25.90u |
| NBA | 750-725-18 | 50% | -42.14u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
DeAndre Hopkins catching a Hail Mary while being triple-teamed to cash his reception prop.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Too many worst beats to count, but losing a Josh Allen rushing attempts prop by one because the Bills sent out Trubisky to kneel it out really stands out.
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