Alabama vs. UConn Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2024

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My reasoning: +Alabama’s up-tempo pace = more possessions +Alabama 194th in 2p%, 291st in TO%… so we should see smarter, sustained possessions from UConn. Clingan can have a day inside (just hoping he isn’t fouled every time) +Positive shooting regression coming?? UConn combined 25% from 3 L3 including 3/17 vs. Illini and 3/22 vs NW +Buy-low spot after 2 unders. Previously over in 4/4

UConn’s defense is a different beast. Sears has taken 60% of his shots from long range this tournament, and UConn was 23rd nationally with only 5.8 makes allowed, 48th in 3P rate allowed, and 28th in opp 3P% (30.9%). And on his drives, he’ll be met by Clingan, who is on a tear defensively in the paint. UConn will drum down Bama’s pace - they have been so good at taking away what their opponent does best, and their opponent’s best perimeter player. They shut down Shannon, and I expect them to limit Sears. Plus, as good as Sears has been, he’s relied more on efficiency than volume. UConn is third nationally in opp eFG%, and ninth in opp assists per possession.