2023 Sweet 16: Miami, Creighton, Texas Predictions Based on Free Throw Percentage

Avery Yang

Updated:

Mar 24, 2023, 04:37 PM EDT

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It might seem intuitive, but good free throw shooting teams are profitable during the NCAA Tournament.

The Action Network's director of research Evan Abrams has developed a betting trend that's applicable to three Sweet 16 games on Friday night — and target the spreads for Miami, Creighton and Texas.

Since 2005, teams that shoot 75% or better from the charity stripe win about 56% of the time, including a 60% win rate since 2018 (64-43-2) and a 60.4% win rate since 2016 (84-55-4).

That fits the bill for Miami vs. Houston; Creighton vs. Alabama; and Texas vs. Xavier.

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The best market prices are listed below.

Miami +7.5 (-108) at WynnBet
Creighton -9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Texas -3.5 (-118) at FanDuel

Pick: Texas -3.5 (-118)

Bet on the Texas Longhorns Instantly With QuickSlip at FanDuel!

The Action Network has also developed a proprietary betting system that applies to Texas vs. Xavier. For it, the philosophy is to fade the public on a line that they love the most.

The betting system has won about 55% of the time since 2005 and targets the total. That's good for a roughly 6% return on investment.

Read more about the specific parameters behind that betting system here.

Avery Yang

Action Contributor

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About the Author

Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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