For the latest updated odds and predictions to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament and make the Final Four, plus best bets, head over to 2024 March Madness: Updated Odds & Predictions to Win NCAA Tournament, Make Final Four.
2024 March Madness Odds to Win NCAA Tournament
| Team | Odds to Win Title | Koerner's Projected Odds |
|---|---|---|
| UConn | +370 | +501 |
| Houston | +550 | +405 |
| Purdue | +700 | +889 |
| Arizona | +1200 | +1384 |
| Tennessee | +1800 | +1112 |
| Auburn | +1800 | +1717 |
| UNC | +1800 | +1803 |
| Iowa State | +2000 | +2453 |
| Marquette | +2500 | +3425 |
| Creighton | +2500 | +3845 |
| Duke | +3000 | +3074 |
| Kentucky | +3000 | +8030 |
| Illinois | +3500 | +3421 |
| Baylor | +3500 | +5465 |
| Alabama | +4000 | +5102 |
| Gonzaga | +4500 | +8244 |
| Kansas | +5000 | +9784 |
| BYU | +6000 | +12000 |
| Wisconsin | +6000 | +19002 |
| Saint Mary's | +6500 | +15018 |
| Michigan State | +6500 | +26723 |
| Florida | +6500 | +68989 |
| New Mexico | +7500 | +37623 |
| San Diego State | +7500 | +40195 |
| Texas Tech | +8000 | +22984 |
| Texas | +10000 | +34450 |
| Clemson | +12000 | +70018 |
| TCU | +12000 | +81592 |
| Nebraska | +12000 | +95601 |
| Colorado | +15000 | +50413 |
| Florida Atlantic | +15000 | +53600 |
| Mississippi State | +15000 | +67343 |
| Dayton | +15000 | +177142 |
| Texas A&M | +15000 | +187721 |
| Washington State | +15000 | +201676 |
| Colorado State | +15000 | +241586 |
| Nevada | +20000 | +90288 |
| Drake | +20000 | +102573 |
| South Carolina | +20000 | +118434 |
| Utah State | +20000 | +320904 |
| Oregon | +20000 | +332692 |
| Boise State | +25000 | +113217 |
| Northwestern | +25000 | +585065 |
| NC State | +25000 | +619815 |
| James Madison | +25000 | +690900 |
| McNeese State | +50000 | +458650 |
| GCU | +50000 | +526074 |
| Samford | +50000 | +1866271 |
| Vermont | +50000 | +6855835 |
| Yale | +50000 | +11318092 |
| Charleston | +100000 | +2340347 |
| Duquesne | +100000 | +8805406 |
| Akron | +100000 | +16205074 |
| UAB | +100000 | +23103267 |
| Morehead State | +100000 | +31453878 |
| Colgate | +100000 | +90394850 |
| Western Kentucky | +100000 | +139832308 |
| South Dakota State | +100000 | +285842482 |
| Oakland | +100000 | +290573522 |
| Longwood | +100000 | +3052140537 |
| Long Beach State | +100000 | +8342676897 |
| Saint Peter's | +100000 | +18896538708 |
| Stetson | +100000 | +159504181984 |
| Grambling | +100000 | +54039836600833 |
| Wagner | +100000 | +133684209666659 |
It's time! The 2024 NCAA Tournament is here. Let's embrace the madness.
As you settle in for this year's men's college basketball tournament, we're here to break down the March Madness odds and best bets to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament and make the Final Four for every team in this year's field.
Our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, has also projected his March Madness odds for every team to win the national title and to make the Final Four, based on the brackets and potential matchups all the way from the First Round through the national championship game.
We've compared the available odds to win the tournament and make the Final Four (via FanDuel) with Koerner's odds to identify the best bets to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament and the best bets to make the 2024 Final Four, based on which teams are undervalued by the market compared to Koerner's expert March Madness picks and predictions.
In each of the tables above and below, you'll see the odds to win the NCAA Tournament or make the Final Four for each team on the left, and Koerner's projected odds on the right. Rows highlighted in green are teams that show value at FanDuel specifically. Teams that are in yellow are basically right in line with where they should be, or just a tiny bit overvalued.
But be sure to shop around and compare Koerner's projected odds across the market!
2024 March Madness Picks, Best Bets to Win NCAA Tournament
Houston Cougars
+600 (BetMGM)
The Cougars are +600 at BetMGM, which gives a bet on Houston quite a bit of value relative to Koerner's projected odds of +405. He also has the Cougars winning it all in his bracket where he predicts every single game:
"Using my 'work backward' approach, I was set on the Cougars winning the national championship with their +8% leverage score in the championship game. I give them a 20% chance of winning it all, but only 12% of brackets have Houston doing so."
Tennessee Volunteers
+1800 (FanDuel, bet365)
This line is live at both FanDuel and bet365, and it's clearly the biggest disparity between the odds posted by sportsbooks and Koerner's projections, which have the Volunteers just a bit longer than 11-1. Instead, we're getting 18-1 on this national championship bet, and we'll take that EV all day long.
The Volunteers clock in as the No. 7 team in the country, according to KenPom, and fulfill all the historical trends that have determined title winners in the past. However, they're underrated in the market.
Auburn Tigers
+1800 (FanDuel, BetRivers)
This is the thinnest value between live NCAA Tournament odds and Koerner's predictions, and the +1800 is only live at FanDuel and BetRivers. Some books, like Caesars, are all the way down to +1400 on the Tigers.
Duke Blue Devils
+3500 (DraftKings)
Duke is valued right in line at FanDuel, where the Blue Devils are +3000. But you can get Duke at +3500 at DraftKings at the moment, which shows value compared to Koerner's projection of +3074 for Duke.
The other blue blood of North Carolina, UNC, is also right on the cusp, with the Tar Heels available at +1800 at FanDuel and Koerner predicting North Carolina as having +1803 odds to win it all in Phoenix.
You can sign up for the best North Carolina sportsbook promos today now that North Carolina sports betting is live.
2024 March Madness Odds to Make Final Four
| Team | Odds to Make Final Four | Koerner's Projected Odds |
|---|---|---|
| UConn | +105 | +149 |
| Houston | +135 | +112 |
| Purdue | +165 | +199 |
| Arizona | +230 | +243 |
| UNC | +340 | +308 |
| Tennessee | +340 | +244 |
| Auburn | +450 | +432 |
| Iowa State | +450 | +510 |
| Creighton | +460 | +627 |
| Marquette | +550 | +586 |
| Baylor | +650 | +695 |
| Duke | +650 | +620 |
| Kentucky | +700 | +1031 |
| Alabama | +750 | +710 |
| Gonzaga | +850 | +1205 |
| Illinois | +950 | +682 |
| Saint Mary's | +1000 | +1540 |
| Wisconsin | +1300 | +2328 |
| Kansas | +1500 | +1319 |
| BYU | +1600 | +1697 |
| Michigan State | +1600 | +2540 |
| Texas Tech | +1600 | +2328 |
| Florida | +1600 | +5258 |
| New Mexico | +1700 | +2931 |
| Texas | +2000 | +3332 |
| Mississippi State | +2300 | +4777 |
| Clemson | +2300 | +4450 |
| San Diego State | +2400 | +4036 |
| Nevada | +2500 | +5148 |
| TCU | +2500 | +5882 |
| Dayton | +3000 | +8068 |
| Nebraska | +3000 | +7322 |
| Colorado State | +3300 | +12624 |
| Texas A&M | +3500 | +11619 |
| Colorado | +3500 | +4248 |
| Oregon | +3500 | +13762 |
| Florida Atlantic | +3600 | +8335 |
| South Carolina | +3900 | +6885 |
| Washington State | +4200 | +12152 |
| GCU | +4500 | +16676 |
| Drake | +4600 | +7657 |
| NC State | +4600 | +21242 |
| Utah State | +4900 | +14954 |
| Northwestern | +6500 | +28128 |
| McNeese State | +6500 | +19009 |
| James Madison | +7500 | +26853 |
| Boise State | +7500 | +9655 |
| Samford | +8000 | +46898 |
| UAB | +15000 | +294562 |
| Yale | +15000 | +192922 |
| Duquesne | +15000 | +150070 |
| Charleston | +15000 | +43709 |
| Akron | +17000 | +175281 |
| Stetson | +25000 | +102791147 |
| Morehead State | +25000 | +345204 |
| South Dakota State | +25000 | +1413895 |
| Wagner | +25000 | +4558519975 |
| Colgate | +25000 | +427010 |
| Long Beach State | +25000 | +7716205 |
| Longwood | +25000 | +6554499 |
| Vermont | +25000 | +120749 |
| Oakland | +25000 | +1063801 |
| Western Kentucky | +25000 | +718928 |
| Saint Peter's | +25000 | +18437099 |
| Grambling State | +25000 | +3192472716 |
2024 March Madness Picks, Best Bets to Make the Final Four
- Houston Cougars (+140, DraftKings)
- UNC Tar Heels (+340, FanDuel)
- Tennessee Volunteers (+350, DraftKings & BetRivers)
- Auburn Tigers (+450, FanDuel)
- Duke Blue Devils (+650, FanDuel & bet365)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (+800, DraftKings & BetMGM)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (+950, FanDuel)
Just like with their odds to win the national title, Houston, Tennessee, Auburn and Duke are all showing value to make the Final Four. And in this market, UNC is also clearly undervalued rather than being right at the break-even point in the national championship market.
As for bets bets to make the Final Four on teams with slightly longer odds, it's hard not to take a look at Illinois at FanDuel. The rest of the market is much closer to being in line with Koerner's predicted odds of +682, but the Illini are +950 at FanDuel.
Speaking of shopping around, Alabama at +800 to make the Final Four is decently longer than Koerner's predicted odds of +710. The last team that shows clear value in Koerner's projections is technically Kansas, but with Kevin McCullar Jr.'s season-ending injury, we won't be tailing the Jayhawks.
