As the calendar flips to February, now is a great time to check in on the American Athletic Conference for our second State of the Conference breakdown.
League play began with a pair of ranked favorites in Florida Atlantic and Memphis. However, neither team has been dominant as we reach the halfway point of AAC action.
Meanwhile, there have been multiple teams who have impressed so far, including Charlotte and South Florida, who have each lost only one conference game. With five squads ranked inside the NET top 100, this has been a much more competitive league than experts predicted.
The American has been a great league to follow, and multiple key games remain on the conference schedule before tournament time.
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FAU the Clear Favorite?
Yes, Florida Atlantic sits at the top of the AAC standings with a 7-1 conference record (tied with Charlotte), but this has not been a team that has won bettors money.
Over the eight league games, the Owls have covered the spread in only one contest. This also includes four victories by single digits and multiple wins under one possession.
We also can’t forget that Charlotte won the first meeting.
Head coach Dusty May’s squad heads into February ranked inside the top 30 by KenPom and in the NET. With so much experience from last year’s Final Four team, I do wonder if the Owls start to play up to their potential.
Looking ahead, Florida Atlantic still has a pair of games against Memphis and a difficult end to the regular season. To close out the conference schedule, FAU has trips to USF, North Texas and Memphis to go along with facing SMU, Tulane and the Tigers again at home in the season finale.
The Owls are the shortest shot on the board to win the AAC regular-season crown at -145 odds at FanDuel. There's no way I could bet that number with the remaining league schedule.
Can Memphis Recover?
Looking at the futures odds at FanDuel, my eyes got very big when I saw that Memphis is +1600 to win the conference. It's a very hard sell after three straight losses, but there's plenty of time for Penny Hardaway to turn this around.
The upcoming schedule does lighten up with Rice, Wichita State and Temple in the next three games. The Tigers also should exact revenge at home against Tulane before their opponents get tougher again.
Of their final seven contests, six are against teams in the top half of the AAC standings, including a pair against FAU. After the recent results, Memphis may need a win over the Owls to secure its spot in the Big Dance.
At some point, I expect Penny’s squad to go on a run, but I still don’t think the odds are long enough for a futures ticket to win the American due to the tricky end-of-season schedule.
Best of the Rest
Charlotte 49ers (+270)
After finishing with a 6-6 record in the nonconference slate, there was no hype surrounding this Charlotte team. Don’t look now, but first-year coach Aaron Fearne has the 49ers competing for a conference title.
Fearne’s team has rattled off seven straight league wins, which is the program’s longest conference winning streak since the 2009-10 season. This is also the Niners' best start to league play since that same campaign in the Atlantic 10.
The remaining schedule features a pair of games against South Florida and a trip to Memphis, which makes this manageable. I really would want a bigger price, but this would be my favorite bet on the board to win the American regular-season title.
North Texas Mean Green (+700)
Another coach in his debut season making noise is Ross Hodge at North Texas. He has his squad ranked 69th in KenPom and the NET.
The Mean Green do need a key win to bolster their resume, as they own an 0-4 record against Quad 1 opponents. However, both Memphis and FAU come to The Super Pit before the end of the regular season.
Even with the change in coach, the identity of this program is still built on the defensive end of the floor. North Texas ranks in the top 40 in multiple categories on defense, per BartTorvik, including AdjD (23rd), eFG% (13th) and opponent 2-point (17th) and 3-point shooting (39th).
Hodge’s defense makes the Mean Green a tough out every game.
Tournament Hopeful
SMU Mustangs (+1100)
The final team in the top 100 of the NET in this conference is SMU, which sits higher than everyone but FAU. The Mustangs will play Memphis and Florida Atlantic in consecutive games in their search for their first Quad 1 victory.
Similar to local rival North Texas, this is another squad that's stout defensively. SMU’s metrics are even better, ranking in the top 20 in all of those same categories above.
With a strong end to the season, head coach Rob Lanier’s program could find a way back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.
Biggest Surprise
South Florida Bulls (+2600)
The job that Amir Abdur-Rahim is doing in his first year in Tampa is not being talked about enough. The Bulls are one win away from matching last season’s win total, and they're right in the middle of the conference title race.
The moment when we found out South Florida was going to be a challenge was in the comeback victory at Memphis. The Bulls erased a 20-point deficit to claim their first win over a ranked opponent since 2012.
One of the keys to the turnaround has been a strong bench that's 33rd in the nation and second in the American, averaging 28.1 points per game. USF’s bench has outscored opponents, 505-340, on the season.
South Florida has a pair of games against Charlotte and hosts FAU in the remaining schedule. At +2600 odds, this isn’t a bad long shot to add to your portfolio.
Key Games in February
- Charlotte at USF: Tuesday, Feb. 6
- North Texas at SMU: Sunday, Feb. 11
- Memphis at North Texas: Thursday, Feb. 15
- FAU at USF: Sunday, Feb. 18
- Charlotte at Memphis: Wednesday, Feb. 21
- FAU at Memphis: Sunday, Feb. 25
