Thursday's college basketball slate brings with it the ACC quarterfinals, starting with Wake Forest vs. Miami at noon ET and ending with NC State vs. Clemson at 8:30 p.m. ET
John Feltman breaks down those two matchups, plus UNC vs. Virginia and Pitt vs. Duke, as part of his full ACC Tournament quarterfinals betting preview.
Check out his betting breakdown for all four ACC Tournament clashes below.
Wake Forest vs. Miami Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | -275 |
We’ve got a terrific slate of ACC basketball today in Greensboro, North Carolina.
To kick off the ACC quarterfinals, we have the Wake Forest Demon Deacons taking on the Miami Hurricanes. If you like track meets, this is the game to watch, as there may be no better way to kick off a long day of hoops.
The Deacons are coming off a dramatic last-second victory over Syracuse. To me, they will have to replicate a similar type of offensive performance in order to hang with the Hurricanes here. Fortunately for them, they may have a backcourt led by Tyree Appleby capable of matching Miami’s guard play.
The concern I have for this matchup is the Deacs' ability to grab second-scoring chances. They're currently 299th in offensive rebounding efficiency, which isn’t great when going up against an elite team.
Wake is going to have its hands full all afternoon, but its ability to shoot from behind the arc (58th) will keep it in any game.
As for Miami, it closed the regular season strong with a tough home win over a stingy Pitt squad. These few days off may pay dividends for the Hurricanes, as they rely on a very thin rotation (326th in bench minutes).
However, it’s tough not to gush over this terrific backcourt that will certainly have the edge in this track meet.
The duo of backcourt mates Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack has been outstanding all season long. Although they may be a bit undersized, Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller fill that void with their talent alone.
Miami doesn't turn the ball over and is excellent at grabbing second chances on offense. With that said, I think the rest pays off for the Canes here, and I simply think they outclass Wake in the talent department.
Expect Jim Larranaga’s squad to open its ACC Tournament with a well-rested effort on both ends of the floor.
Pick: Miami -6.5 (Play to -7) |
Pitt vs. Duke Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -102 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | +198 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | -245 |
This may be the best matchup of the day.
The Panthers dropped their regular season matchup against the Blue Devils, but I think this may be a much closer game than people expect. Not to spoil the rest of this breakdown, but I think this line opened stunningly large.
Duke has been playing terrific basketball of late, as the youth of this squad is beginning to find its role. The Blue Devils went into a rowdy Dean Dome at Chapel Hill on Saturday and pulled out a true grinder of a win over the Tar Heels. With the Heels essentially having their season on the line, this was an impressive feat.
The Blue Devils have been one of the nation’s best defensive units throughout the entire season. Their perimeter defense has been especially impressive, as they rank inside the top 40 in both 3-point and midrange defense. They don't give up a whole lot on the defensive end of the floor, and they’re among the best teams in the country in allowing opportunities at the charity stripe.
To counter the Blue Devils defense, a team needs to have a decent offense, and that's exactly what the Panthers bring to the table. They find themselves inside the top 80 in the majority of offensive categories, and they’re especially elite at protecting the basketball (20th in turnovers).
The Panthers didn’t play their best basketball against Georgia Tech yesterday, but I think we should see a bounce-back effort here. Their experience — they're one of the most experienced teams in the country — will also play a factor against a young Duke team.
I don’t know if the Panthers will be able to contain the Blue Devils enough to secure an outright win, but I think this is way too many points to lay with Duke. I think the market is being a bit generous here and may be overreacting to some recency bias of both teams.
Give me the Panthers all day, with perhaps a chance to pull out a win late.
Pick: Pitt +6.5 (Play to +5.5) |
North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
After spending all day watching some high-quality offenses, we have a grinder of a matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers.
I expect both of these teams to play their usual close-contested game, but the question is how desperate is this Tar Heels squad?
Presumably, the Tar Heels will need to make the championship game of this tournament in order to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. However, even that may not be enough, according to multiple insiders.
The Tar Heels may have their hands full even more with the status of Armando Bacot up in the air. Bacot exited the game against Boston College, although Hubert Davis says the injury isn’t as severe as the one he suffered against Kansas in the national championship.
Meanwhile, Virginia will look to bounce back after dropping its last matchup with the Heels in Chapel Hill. As we know by now, Tony Bennett’s slow and methodical offensive style usually illustrates the terrific defense of his squads.
The Hoos are led by Kihei Clark, who is essentially the captain on both ends of the floor. I think Virginia’s frontcourt defense will need to put up a big effort here, as the Heels don’t do a lot of scoring from the outside.
If Bacot can’t make it through the full game, I think that could be the dagger in the Heels' season. I know I spoke about how this game is going to be a true grinder, but I really think the total is a tad too low. Bacot’s injury may force the Heels to let things fly from the outside more often, and that's the one area Virginia’s defense isn’t great in.
Hold your nose and take this over.
Pick: Over 129.5 (Play to 130.5) |
NC State vs. Clemson Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 148.5 -115o / -105u | -122 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 148.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
We cap off the ACC quarterfinals with a couple of teams that have had surprisingly strong seasons. The NC State Wolfpack will look to keep rolling as they take on the Clemson Tigers.
The Tigers defeated the Wolfpack in both regular-season matchups pretty handily, but they oddly find themselves as underdogs here.
Looking at both teams, we can see a bunch of points scored. The Wolfpack are excellent on offense, ranking inside the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they're second in the country in preventing turnovers on offense.
Clemson, meanwhile, is more than capable of holding its own, ranking inside the top 45 in both 3-point and 2-point percentage. Both teams also tend to ramp things up a bit, so we should expect a lot of possessions in this game.
I think the difference here can come down to the Tigers' offensive rebounding ability and ability to force turnovers. These seem to be major areas of concern for the Tigers, as they find themselves in the bottom 200 in both categories.
Simply put, I think the Wolfpack end the skid against the Tigers in this matchup, and I just believe they’re playing better basketball right now. However, I don’t really trust the current number to play NC State, as I expect this game to go down to the wire.
If the line reaches 3.5 or 4, you could convince me to back the Tigers in what should be a high-variance game. For now, though, it’s a pass.
Pick: Pass (Clemson +3.5 or +4 If Line Moves)
