Arizona State vs Colorado Odds, Pick
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +700 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
The Colorado Buffaloes have revenge on their minds Thursday against the Arizona State Sun Devils, who beat them last month. That win over Colorado registered a fourth consecutive conference win for Arizona State. Since then? The Sun Devils have lost six of their past seven games. It's turning into a full-on tailspin for Bobby Hurley's squad in what once looked like a promising season.
Meanwhile, fresh off a two-game losing skid, Colorado is looking for a get-right game in a must-win spot for its NCAA Tournament resume.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State's offense is arguably the Pac-12's worst, which is a stark difference from Hurley's first few seasons in Tempe. Long gone are the days of 'Guard U' hoops in Tempe. The Sun Devils haven't cracked the one point-per-possession threshold in any of their last six losses, and it's been a season-long struggle considering they rank 237th in offensive efficiency.
The main source of their offensive struggles is 3-point shooting. Arizona State only shoots 29% from downtown, and Jose Perez is the lone rotation player shooting above 30% from deep. Many figured Adam Miller's emergence could improve the shooting, but he's shooting 32% overall and 27% from deep. There isn't enough offensive flow, and nobody can hit the shot, even if the crafty Frankie Collins creates a look. In conference play, Arizona State is attempting the second-most 3s in the Pac-12 with the worst percentage of made 3s. That's a pretty awful formula.
The good thing about Arizona State? It plays a callous, aggressive style of defense. The team ranks 58th in defensive efficiency and force turnovers on 20% of possessions. Collins is one of the best steal maestro's in college basketball, tallying over three steals per game. He's the head of the Sun Devils' defensive snake. The half-court offensive struggles fall by the wayside when Arizona State can force turnovers and run in transition.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado remains firmly in the NCAA Tournament, but a home loss against Arizona State could change that. The Buffaloes are 15-7 and 6-5 in Pac-12 play but remain unbeaten in Boulder.
Offensively, Colorado focuses heavily on a trio of players: KJ Simpson (19.5 PPG, 50.3% shooting), Tristan da Silva (15.3 PGG, 5.5 RPG) and Cody Williams (14.7 PPG). Simpson has become a real point guard this season instead of the shot-chucking player he once was. His development as a playmaker has helped vault Colorado into the top 35 of KenPom's offensive efficiency.
Very few of Colorado's shots come from deep, with the Buffaloes attempting 3-pointers on only 29% of their shots. It's not for a lack of shooting, though, considering they make 39% of those attempts. They simply prefer scoring at the hoop instead of firing away from deep. Da Silva and Simpson are the only two Buffaloes with over 60 3-point attempts.
Colorado's lack of depth could create a problem in a high-possession game. The Buffaloes only play seven or eight players, depending on who's available.
On the other end, Colorado is very reliable, sitting at 37th in defensive efficiency. It's generally a well-balanced team, as it can win a defensive battle or offensive shootout, depending on the game's flow. Williams and da Silva are the team's two best defenders. Neither are scared of defending inside or out, making them incredibly valuable.
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Arizona State vs. Colorado
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both squads rank inside the top 100 of adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. While that typically lends value to the Over, neither team will light the rims up from deep.
The possessions might be high, but Arizona State's legs could wear thin in the Boulder altitude. Plus, Colorado is comfortable playing a defensive-minded game. I'm rolling with the Under here.
