Arizona vs FAU Odds, Pick
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Florida Atlantic's biggest test of the season comes on Saturday as it heads to Las Vegas to take on Arizona in the Desert Classic. These are two of KenPom's top-10 offenses squaring off in what will surely be a high-scoring and intense affair.
Arizona enters this matchup fresh off a double-digit victory against Alabama — though it was a scare until the Wildcats pulled away late. Meanwhile, FAU has won two straight, including a 10-point win over St. Bonaventure a week ago.
Here are Arizona vs. FAU odds and a pick for Saturday.
Arizona Wildcats
If you were able to measure a team from a pure entertainment factor, Arizona would be chief among them.
This is the sixth-ranked offense, both in terms of efficiency and tempo. Head coach Tommy Lloyd has brought a whole new meaning to the run-and-gun offense for a team that's tall, physical and fearless at the rim. The Wildcats average 92.3 points per game and have yet to be held below 74 points.
This is a true national championship contender. They're first in ShotQuality’s shot selection tool and are fifth in Rim-and-3 Rate from a SQ PPP perspective. They finish at the rim at a near-50% rate and sit inside the top 25 in 2-point%, offensive rebounding rate and assist rate.
Five players average 12+ points per game, with a couple of transfers in Caleb Love (UNC, 15.5 PPG) and Keshad Johnson (San Diego State, 13.6 PPG) leading the way. This is such a balanced and dominant attack that any player can take over on any given night.
Johnson and Oumar Ballo’s size in the frontcourt has been suffocating for opponents. Tack on 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas, and it makes sense as to why the Wildcats are one of the best rebounding teams in the country — on both sides of the floor.
There isn’t an area on the offensive end where Arizona struggles. The Wildcats take care of the ball, are inside the top 35 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting and get to the line at a consistent rate.
Kylan Boswell has stepped up as the primary ball handler, and perhaps no player on this roster has taken a jump quite like the sophomore. He's nearly tripled his points and assists output per game and is shooting 46% from 3.
In essence, there’s no shortage of offense, size or physicality for the Wildcats.
But the biggest difference compared to years past is defense. They're second in Adjusted Efficiency and even when they “struggle” on the offensive end — they shot 4-of-17 from 3 against Alabama on Wednesday — their defense can force turnovers (18) and turn them into points (26).
The way to beat this Arizona team is by catching fire from 3. Because of the fast-paced nature, oftentimes opponents are able to find open looks from the perimeter.
But we’ve seen time and time again, even when teams are able to pull their weight and hang 80+ points against this Arizona team, the Wildcats have a gut punch response every time.
High-intensity, high-flying and high-scoring is the name of the game.
Florida Atlantic Owls
The darling of last season’s March Madness, Florida Atlantic, is off to a strong start yet again under Dusty May.
Much of that has to do with the Owls' experience and chemistry, returning all but one rotational piece from last season. They're third in minutes continuity and have already picked up five Quadrant I or II wins in their first 11 games.
Offense has been the name of the game for Florida Atlantic. It's top-10 in Adjusted Efficiency and ranks inside the top 20 in both 2- and 3-point shooting.
Johnell Davis has been the engine of this offense and is shooting a blistering 48.8% from beyond the arc.
Balanced is the best way to describe this FAU offense. It can shoot the 3 ball well, but it's about league average in 3PA/FGA. The Owls are extremely physical, and despite a lack of true size, they rank inside the top 75 in offensive rebounding. In terms of frequency, 41% of all their shots end at the rim.
That’s because 7-foot-1 Vladislav Goldin parks himself in the paint and has been a near-unstoppable force in non-conference play. He's taken a huge step forward in his fourth college season, leading the team in points (15.1) and ranking 10th in the nation in 2-point% (75.9).
Oh, and he’s done this in just 22 minutes per game, too.
The Owls also received a huge boost last week with the return of Nick Boyd. He had missed the team’s previous seven games with a leg injury, but he's another excellent shooter — 38.5% last year from 3 — and another much-needed body on what is a not-so-deep roster.
Defensively, there are a lot of questions for this FAU team. Goldin is an elite rim protector, but he plays limited minutes. Take out the 7-foot-1 center and there’s not much size anywhere else for the Owls.
ShotQuality ranks this defense 275th in terms of shot making and about league- or below-average defensively in all other areas. They're outside the top 200 in 3-point defense and are often broken down in the pick-and-roll (24% of possessions, per SQ).
Forcing Goldin off a tall and physical Arizona frontcourt could be deadly for FAU. Not only will the guard be able to take Goldin off the dribble, but double teams will lead to open shooters, or players like Ballo will have incredibly easy looks at the rim.
The key for FAU’s defense is forcing turnovers and slowing the game down. This team is athletic and is fourth in the country in terms of half-court frequency on the defensive end. Normally teams are unable to run-and-gun, which is an extreme opposite of Arizona’s identity.
Arizona vs. Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Alabama game encapsulated just how dominant Arizona is. The Wildcats struggled from the perimeter and just when it looked like an upset was more than possible, a blowout ensued. It was complete domination in the final 10 minutes, with turnovers leading to fast break and transition opportunities.
You blinked and Arizona was up by double digits.
I believe this Florida Atlantic team is a bit overvalued entering Saturday afternoon, specifically its defense. The Owls gave up nearly 100 points to an Illinois team that's nowhere near the offensive beast that Arizona is. Now FAU gets a more physical, high-flying and fast-paced offense that never stops?
This game has the potential to spiral out of control, unless the Owls can go blow-for-blow with the Wildcats and catch fire from the perimeter. I'm not sure how much success Goldin has — in fact, I expect him to battle foul trouble against the physicality of Ballo, putting all the more pressure on the FAU backcourt to pull its weight.
I'm all in on Arizona being the best team in the country at this point, and Lloyd has the prior success to prove he's worth backing.
In his three years at Arizona, Lloyd is 38-27-2 ATS (58.5%) as a favorite, good for an 11.2% ROI, per BetLabs. When he's between a 6-10 point favorite, that record is an even more impressive 10-4 (71.4%) with a 36.9% ROI.
Pick: Arizona -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
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