Auburn vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Closing out Tuesday’s action in the SEC, No. 21 Auburn travels to Oxford, Mississippi, to take on Ole Miss at The Pavilion.
The Tigers picked up one of their best victories of the season over the weekend, knocking off No. 15 Arkansas to improve to 12-3 overall.
Meanwhile, the Rebels are still searching for their first SEC win after dropping all three contests to No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Tennessee and rival Mississippi State.
Every conference matchup is important for seeding and resumes, and I expect this late tip on ESPNU to be a great battle.
Auburn Tigers
Head coach Bruce Pearl has his team off to a solid start to the season, but the Tigers need to be more consistent away from home.
All three losses have come in games either on the road or on neutral floors, with the worst coming in the last defeat at Georgia.
One thing Pearl doesn’t have to worry about is the play of his defense, which is one of the best in the country in multiple categories.
On the season, Auburn ranks inside the top 40 in AdjD (14th), EFG% (10th), 2-point % (30th) and 3-point defense (3rd), according to Bart Torvik.
If Pearl’s squad can continue to improve on the offensive end, the Tigers will be another team to watch once we get to March.
Ole Miss Rebels
In his first season with the Rebels, coach Kermit Davis led the program to the NCAA tournament and was named the SEC Coach of the Year.
However, they have not been able to have continued success under his leadership, failing to make the Big Dance in the last three campaigns.
Davis’ team is not headed in the right direction entering this matchup, losing the last four games and five of the last six.
The issues are primarily on the offensive end, where the Rebels rank outside the top 275 in EFG% and 3-point shooting. This is also the same squad that has averaged only 58.33 points in SEC play so far.
Ole Miss does have a quality scorer in Matthew Murrell (14.7 PPG), but Davis doesn’t have another player that averages double figures this season.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
This is a game between two teams that are much better on the defensive end of the floor than offensively, which is why I see betting value on the total falling under 131.5 points.
I would play this to 128.
For all of the issues scoring the ball, the Rebels have been much more consistent at getting stops. Ole Miss ranks inside the top 60 in multiple categories defensively, including AdjD (59th), EFG% (47th) and 2-point defense (20th).
Davis’ squad has not been as good at defending the 3 (203rd), but that is likely not going to matter against an Auburn team that is outside the top 300 in 3-point shooting.
The Tigers also rank lowly in EFG% (242nd) and turnover percentage (228th) on offense, which means the home team should be able to stay competitive here.
Another key factor leading to a lower-scoring game is the pace of play of both teams. The visitors come into the matchup ranked 186th in tempo (KenPom), while the Rebels are slower at 259th.
The scheduling spot should also help Ole Miss in this one, as the Rebels are desperate for their first SEC win after dropping the first three.
Meanwhile, Auburn is fresh off its best win of the season and could be caught sleeping.
Pick: Under 131.5 (Play to 128) |
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