Baylor vs TCU Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -115 | 148 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -105 | 148 -110o / -110u | +115 |
The TCU Horned Frogs host the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon in an important Big 12 matchup.
The Bears have been on a roll and that continued on Wednesday with a 82-72 win over Oklahoma. They have won eight of their past nine games following an 0-3 start in conference play. Baylor is 18-6 overall and No. 14 in the AP poll.
TCU lost to Kansas State 82-61 on Tuesday night. It is 17-7 overall, but just 1-2 without star point guard Mike Miles Jr. The Horned Frogs will likely be without Miles Jr. again, but that may not affect the total.
TCU won in Waco the first time these two met earlier this season. I'll get into how you should bet the rematch below.
Baylor Bears
Baylor leads the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and averages 79 points per game. The trio of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer account for 46.9 points, making them the second highest scoring trio in the country behind NC State. George and Flagler each surpassed 20 points against Oklahoma. Cryer left Wednesday's game with a foot injury and is questionable for Saturday.
Flagler leads the team with five assists per game. He leads the Big 12 and ranks 11th nationally in assist-turnover ratio. He is also the team's best 3-point shooter at 41%.
Baylor is a solid 3-point shooting team at 35.6%. The Bears rank 28th nationally with 9.2 threes per game. They get to the free throw line at a high rate, ranking 19th in attempts and sitting just outside the top 50 at 75% from the line.
Forward Flo Thamba provides veteran experience and will tie Baylor's record for games played with an appearance in Saturday's game. He averages 5.1 rebounds per game and forward Jalen Bridges leads the team with six per game. Baylor outrebounds its opponents by nearly five per game, mostly on the offensive end.
However, the Bears do not provide much resistance on the interior. Baylor is 287th in 2-point percentage defense. Baylor also allows nearly 10 offensive rebounds per game and is 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
TCU Horned Frogs
Miles scored 33 points, had four assists and knocked down the team's only three triples the first time these two teams met. TCU will be without its star guard for the fourth straight game. However, it has still surpassed 70 points in two of the three games without him. TCU also shot 44% against Kansas State, but was doomed by 19 turnovers.
Damion Baugh led the way against Kansas State with 16 points, five rebounds and five assists. He ranks third in the Big 12 in assists and fifth with 1.8 steals per game. Forward Emanuel Miller is 13th in the Big 12 in scoring (13 PPG) and sixth in rebounding with 6.4 per game.
Center Eddie Lampkin returned against Kansas State from an ankle injury. His impact was minimal but he could have a big game against Baylor. He averages 6.3 rebounds, with 3.1 on the offensive end to lead the Horned Frogs. He had 15 points and nine rebounds (four offensive) in the first meeting.
In that game, TCU was able to attack Baylor inside. TCU got 30 of its 33 field goals inside the arc. It also got to the free throw line 23 times, slightly above its average 21.6 and 38th nationally. TCU may look to use a similar formula on Saturday.
Baylor vs TCU Betting Pick
Baylor and TCU have two of the most potent offenses in the Big 12. Baylor is second in the conference in scoring while TCU is fifth. Combined, they average 155.6 points per game. The first meeting soared past the total with 175 points. At 149.5, we are getting a ton of value here.
Baylor will do much of its damage behind the arc. It made 11 threes in the first meeting. TCU, on the other hand, will look to exploit Baylor on the interior. I expect Miller and Lampkin to both crack double figures.
These contrasting styles should make for another high scoring game. The over has hit in six of the last 10 games for both teams. I expect 150 points to be scored in Forth Worth on Saturday afternoon
Pick: Over 149.5 |
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