Baylor vs. West Virginia Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 148 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 148 -110o / -110u | -135 |
The West Virginia Mountaineers will host the Baylor Bears in a continuation of play in the best conference in college basketball: the Big 12.
Baylor has dropped three straight after picking up quality wins over UCLA, Gonzaga and Washington State in November and early December. Those three losses did come against Iowa State, TCU and Kansas State, but the latter two occurred at home.
Morgantown, WV, is not an east place to play, but the Mountaineers have also dropped three games in a row to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Kansas.
With both teams looking to get right, neither has an edge in this spot. However, there's a chance the Mountaineers return Kedrian Johnson to the floor after he had a concussion last week.
That said, Baylor has a phenomenal offense that can hit the 3 more often and get to the free-throw line. It should win in a close game.
Baylor Bears
The Bears love to shoot the 3. They rank 27th in the NCAA in 3-point attempt percentage at just a touch over 45%, and 35.4% of their points come from deep.
They are shooting 35.8% from long range, as nearly everyone in this lineup hits from the perimeter. Keyonte George is a little under 34%. Langston Love, LJ Cryer, Jalen Bridges and Dale Bonner are all over 34%. Also, Adam Flagler is knocking down a potent 48.2% of his deep shots.
With this many threats against a Mountaineers defense that allows opponents to shoot around 33%, the Bears should be open to trading 2s and free throws for 3s.
This Baylor team also can get to the free-throw line. It ranks 31st in free-throw attempt percentage at 39.5%.
It does tend to foul plenty on defense, though, ranking 276th in that same metric. West Virginia ranks 24th in free-throw attempt percentage on offense but 316th on defense.
In addition, the Mountaineers are shooting below 70% from the strike while the Bears are shooting almost 74%.
Even with this game at home, the Bears should have a slight edge at the line.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
West Virginia Mountaineers
A major hurdle to Baylor’s success has been its ability to defend, as it ranks 82nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The Mountaineers rank 38th, though, so they have a much more balanced approach.
On offense, the Bears turn the ball over at a 20% clip. West Virginia, on the other hand, ranks 118th in offensive turnover percentage and turns opponents over 22.6% of the time. This should be an edge to WVU since the home crowd will be behind it.
Baylor cannot defend inside or outside too well. Meanwhile, West Virginia is shooting 35.5% from 3-point range and 53% inside the arc. Baylor is allowing a 34.5% 3-point rate and a 49.2% 2-point rate.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
This seems concerning, but the Mountaineers rank 283rd point distribution from 3-pointers while Baylor ranks 72nd. These two should truly be trading 2s for 3s, and in that case, the Bears would come out ahead.
Finally, Baylor permits opponents to grab 29.5% of offensive rebounds while West Virginia is not much better at 28.7%.
On offense, however, the Bears are hauling in 37.4% of boards to West Virginia’s 33.9%.
It should be mostly even on the glass, with a small advantage to the Bears.
Baylor vs. West Virginia Betting Pick
Look for the Bears to knock out the Mountaineers with an onslaught of 3-pointers.
Since West Virginia and Baylor can similarly draw fouls and get to the line, this should negate the Mountaineers’ usual advantage in this area of the game, even if they are playing at home.
Take the Bears at +2, and play them down to PK.
Pick: Baylor +2 (Play to PK) |
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