With a month left in the Big 12 season, we finally have a clear picture of who has a chance to come out on top in the race for the league title.
As the dust has settled after Houston’s win over Iowa State on Monday night, we now have one team alone at the top: the Houston Cougars.
But that doesn't mean the race for the regular-season title is wrapped up.
Baylor and Iowa State still loom large, just one game back of the Cougars in the loss column. And behind them, a trio of quality teams remain in the hunt with five games left in the Big 12 season.
It will not be a huge surprise to see nine teams qualify for the NCAA Tournament from this league. The Big 12 has more quality depth than any other conference in college basketball.
Teams like Oklahoma, Texas and Cincinnati are quality rosters with a chance to play in the postseason, but thanks to how good the top of the league is, they find themselves competing for eighth place in the conference.
While we have more clarity on who may win this league, we also have more clarity on how good each of these teams could be in postseason play.
Read on to see our insight on the best Big 12 bets to make down the stretch run of the season.
The Leader
Houston Cougars (-270)
After its most recent win over Iowa State, Houston looks like the runaway favorite to win this league.
The Cougars have held the top spot on KenPom for much of the season, even ahead of the supposedly elite duo of UConn and Purdue. While they don’t get the same love at a national level, they're running through the best league in their first go-around in the Big 12.
This is the top-ranked defense in all of college basketball, and they're elite in every defensive category. They rank in the top 10 in defensive field-goal percentage, turnovers forced, 3-point defense, block rate and steal rate. They're smothering and a nightmare to have to game plan against.
At 10-3 in Big 12 play and 23-3 overall, the Cougars are a legitimate threat to win the national championship this season.
Best Bet: The odds to win the Big 12 are no longer good enough. The better bet is for Houston to Make the Final Four at +200.
The Other Contenders (One Game Back)
Iowa State Cyclones (+260)
While their most recent result certainly does not favor their fortunes in this league, Iowa State has been one of the better betting values all season long.
Like Houston, Iowa State’s claim to fame is its elite defense. The Cyclones rank third in defensive efficiency in all of college basketball.
They have an elite point guard in Tamin Lipsey, an elite freshman in Milan Momcilovic and one of the best scorers in the conference in Keshon Gilbert.
Their offense will need to hold up its end of the bargain to win anything serious come March, but there are real reasons to buy into this team long-term.
And it's not out of the Big 12 race just yet either — Iowa State will be favored in all five of its remaining games and doesn't face a top-50 team on the road again before the season ends.
Houston still has to go to Baylor and host Kansas in the final game of the regular season.
Best Bet: Iowa State to Win the Big 12 (+260)
Baylor Bears (+1700)
The only team in this tier with a different profile stylistically than Houston and Iowa State is the Baylor Bears, who are one game back from Houston in the loss column.
Scott Drew has once again assembled one of the best offenses in college hoops, but his defense lets him down from time to time.
This is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the entire country. The Bears make 41% of their triples, and when they're hot on offense, they're essentially unbeatable.
Yves Missi has emerged as one of the best freshmen in college basketball as well. He anchors the paint around RayJ Dennis, Ja’Kobe Walter and Jayden Nunn.
Baylor will need the right matchups, but it wouldn't be a shock to see them make a run in March.
Its schedule turns very difficult in its final six games. All of its remaining opponents are ranked within the top 40 teams, according to KenPom.
Best Bet: Because of its remaining schedule, there's no value on Baylor to earn a share of the Big 12 title. Bettors are better served backing Baylor at +900 odds to make the Final Four, but we would not recommend that because its defense will likely hold it back from making a deep run in March.
Long Shot Big 12 Title Contenders (Two Games Back)
Kansas Jayhawks (+2700)
There's one more long shot worth noting. Kansas is the one team two games back of Houston that has a chance of magically pulling a Big 12 title out of Bill Self’s hat.
The Jayhawks will have plenty of opportunities to narrow the gap.
The schedule favors them, as three of their final five games come at home, where the Jayhawks have not yet lost a game this season.
Their final game of the season comes at Houston, which will be incredibly difficult. But if Kansas can win out up until that game, there's a great chance they could be playing for the Big 12 title.
Depth and shotmaking have long been the concerns for Kansas this season, and Johnny Furphy has emerged as a legitimate answer to both of them. With his growing role in the lineup, Kansas finally has five great players to work with.
The problem is the Jayhawks still don't have much off the bench, and with Kevin McCullar dealing with nagging injuries, Kansas doesn't have much room for error.
Best Bet: Kansas to win the Big 12 at +2700 odds has legitimate value given the stretch of home games between now and the end of the season. A bet at these odds now could yield some good hedge opportunities if it comes down to Kansas at Houston for the final game of the season.
Tournament Locks
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6500)
Grant McCasland’s team is right on track for an NCAA Tournament bid, and it will try to cling to a winning record in Big 12 play as it enters the stretch run. The Red Raiders are 7-5 with six remaining games to play.
The good news is that Texas Tech will be favored in all six.
The bad news is that with no opportunities remaining against Houston and Iowa State, Texas Tech can't do the damage it needs to work its way back into title contention.
Its offense now ranks 14th nationally, and with the 65th-best defense, it's not a slouch on either end.
The Red Raiders will need the right draw, but they're not a bad team to sprinkle a futures bet on.
Best Bet: Texas Tech to Make the Final Four (+2000)
TCU Horned Frogs (+8000)
The last team with just five losses in the Big 12 play is TCU.
Jameer Nelson Jr.’s heroics kept the Horned Frogs alive in the Big 12 race statistically for at least one more week, hitting one of the most aesthetically pleasing game-winning shots of the entire season.
While TCU is a nice story, it doesn't rank in the KenPom top 25 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. It's simply not elite enough at anything to make real noise in March.
Best Bet: Stay Away
BYU Cougars (+21000)
The predictive metrics are finally starting to dip a bit for BYU. After holding strong as a top-10 KenPom team for the first half of conference play, the Cougars are just 6-6 in Big 12 play.
BYU has won only two games against top-60 opponents since league play began. It hasn't held up against quality teams in its first Big 12 go-around.
The Cougars shoot over half of their shots from 3-point range, so if they catch fire for the right three weeks in March, there's no telling what could happen. But as their defensive metrics dip — down to 52nd nationally — that looks less and less likely.
Best Bet: Stay Away
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners got off to a quality start in league play but have since dropped five of their last eight games. Their only quality win in that span was a home win over BYU.
With rumors that Porter Moser could be looking for a new coaching destination next season, it's hard to believe in the Sooners at this point in the season.
Best Bet: Stay Away
Bubble Teams
There's currently no market for any of these teams, so our advice would be to stay away. But keep an eye out, as FanDuel has added odds for select teams to make or miss the tournament, and these could be added at any point.
Texas Longhorns
College basketball fans everywhere would love to see Max Abmas make one final run in the NCAA Tournament, but Texas has work to do to make that happen.
The Longhorns have a losing record in conference play with three weeks remaining, and their loss at West Virginia will be a bad mark on the resume come Selection Sunday.
Dylan Disu’s emergence gives them hope, as he has now scored in double figures in eight consecutive games. But they will need more defensively to solidify their spot in the tournament field.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincy owns the same 16-9 overall record and 5-7 conference record as Texas, but Wes Miller’s squad has less star power than the Longhorns.
The Bearcats' remaining schedule includes three road games against top-40 opponents, so it's hard to see them making much noise down the stretch.
Kansas State Wildcats
Jerome Tang’s team is in free fall as we head into the final stretch of the season. The Wildcats have now lost six of their last seven Big 12 games.
It's hard to trust this Kansas State team much. While the Wildcats are trending downward, they're a whopping 6-0 in six overtime games this season.
Their offense ranks 164th in the country, and they make just 30% of their shots from outside, good for 313th nationally.
That offense simply cannot propel them to a run, and it would not be a surprise to see their slide continue until they fall all the way out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
Out of Contention
There's no market for these teams — at least not until the NIT bracket is unveiled.
UCF Knights
UCF opened the season well, with a solid run through nonconference play. But the Big 12 season has been a different story.
The Knights have just four wins in conference play and will be favored in just two of their final six remaining games on the schedule.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State opened Big 12 play with six consecutive losses. It has rebounded nicely, winning three of its last six, but it's simply too little too late.
The Cowboys will not be favored to win any of their final six games.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia's first season without Bub Huggins could not have gone worse.
The Mountaineers have won only three games in Big 12 play and will likely finish last in the standings by the time the season ends. All that NIL money spent, so few wins.
