The final four is set in what has been a highly entertaining 2022-23 Big 12 season.
After putting on a show against West Virginia, Kansas marches on to take on an Iowa State team that has hit its stride at just the right time. The Cyclones have shaken off a four-game Big 12 losing streak by defeating Baylor in back-to-back games.
Although the Jayhawks' opening-round win was impressive, they will have to continue to be sharp on the offensive end against an Iowa State defense that thrives on its ability to create pressure.
In the second matchup, we have a stellar duel between two of the best offenses in the conference.
Texas’ effectiveness on both ends of the floor was on full display in a 60-47 victory against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns currently rank inside the top 11 in Adjusted Efficiency on both ends of the court.
For TCU, the loss of center Eddie Lampkin Jr. — due to personal reasons — did not slow it down as it took down Kansas State behind a 22-point performance from star Mike Miles Jr.
The Big 12 has delivered all season long, and I don’t expect anything to change on Friday night.
Iowa State vs. Kansas Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
After taking down Baylor for the second game in a row, Iowa State now has a meeting with the top-seeded Jayhawks on Friday night.
The Cyclones dominated Baylor on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 44-17.
On the other side, Kansas was able to handle its business against West Virginia despite the absence of head coach Bill Self, who has been ruled out for the rest of the Big 12 Tournament due to an illness.
This will be the third matchup between these two teams, with each coming out with a victory on their home floor.
In this third meeting, I expect an experienced Cyclones team to make life more difficult for the Jayhawks.
Iowa State ranks seventh nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due to its ability to limit teams on the interior and on the offensive glass.
The Cyclones are allowing their opponents to score just 40.7% of their points on the interior, one of the lowest rates in the country.
This interior defense will be critical against Jalen Wilson and a Jayhawks offense that has thrived on creating penetration. Kansas was able to convert 26 of its 43 total field goal attempts inside the 3-point line in its quarterfinal matchup with West Virginia.
In total, the Jayhawks are scoring 52.1% of their total points from 2-point range in Big 12 play, the third-highest rate in the conference.
Additionally, you can always count on an Iowa State defense — second nationally in turnover percentage — to make life difficult for its opponents.
In a game that will feature two effective defenses, the best pick here is to take the points with an experienced Cyclones team that can match Kansas on the interior.
Pick: Iowa State +4 or Better |
TCU vs. Texas Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
You can’t ask for a more entertaining matchup than Texas vs. TCU in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament.
Both of these teams are comfortable playing at a fast pace, with both ranking inside the top 75 in Adjusted Tempo.
For Miles and TCU, this ability to play at a high rate will go a long way in nullifying the defensive pressure Texas can create. The Longhorns rank 18th nationally in turnover percentage, creating turnovers on 22.9% of their opponents' possessions.
TCU’s offense has shown an ability to handle this pressure, coughing the ball up on just 18.4% of its possessions in Big 12 play.
The most intriguing matchup will be at the guard position as TCU’s Miles takes on Texas’ Marcus Carr.
Miles, who's fresh off a 22-point performance vs. Kansas State, will be looking to make a statement, as he was left off the All-Big 12 First Team in favor of Carr.
Miles and TCU will look to accomplish this by creating pressure on the defensive end. The Horned Frogs rank second in the Big 12 in steal percentage at 11.5%.
This will be critical in disrupting a Texas offense accustomed to turning the ball over on just 16.9% of its offensive possessions, the lowest rate in the conference.
In order to combat this defensive pressure, Texas will need to expose TCU’s weakness on the glass. The Horned Frogs rank 285th in offensive rebounding percentage, allowing their opponents to create second chances on 30.6% of their shot attempts.
Unfortunately Texas, which ranks 267th nationally in Average Height, hasn’t been effective on the glass. The Longhorns create second chances on just 28.1% of its shot attempts (201st nationally).
Lastly, I look for fatigue to start to play a factor down the stretch between two teams who are at their best when playing up-tempo.
This will be an advantage for TCU, which ranks 12th nationally in bench minutes compared to a ranking of 122nd for Texas.
Give me the points with Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs in what is sure to be a thriller.
Pick: TCU +3.5 or Better |
