The first round of the Big 12 Tournament will get underway on Wednesday evening with Texas Tech squaring off against West Virginia and Oklahoma matching up against in-state rival Oklahoma State.
Although these two games are between the bottom four teams, the Big 12 has been the most competitive conference all season long. This level of competitiveness is shown in West Virginia being widely projected as a 9-seed, while Oklahoma State still has a chance to bolster its resume and make an appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
These tournament hopes come despite both teams combining to finish 15-21 in conference play.
For Texas Tech, this will be an interesting tournament for a team which just lost head coach Mark Adams, after he was suspended from the team following racially insensitive comments. Assistant coach Corey Williams has been promoted to head coach in the interim.
Oklahoma will need to put together a memorable run in order to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after an up-and-down season which landed the Sooners at 15-16 overall.
Before we dive into these opening round matchups, make sure you check out Charlie Disturco’s Big 12 Preview where he goes in-depth on what the field looks like as a whole and who has the best value from a futures perspective.
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Although Texas Tech and West Virginia are meeting in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament, this matchup doesn’t lack storylines.
For a Texas Tech team which has had a roller coaster of a season, they must now enter postseason play without its head coach.
The Red Raiders had a late-season winning streak with impressive wins over Kansas State, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma before ending on a three-game losing streak.
These up-and-down results can be attributed to a roster which was plagued by injuries for most of conference play until they were finally able to get healthy down the stretch.
On the other side, West Virginia is still looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume despite finishing just 7-11 in conference play.
This postseason projection is the result of West Virginia posting a 6-12 record against Quad 1 opponents, according to the NET rankings.
The Mountaineers will look to continue this success against top-level competition on Wednesday night against the Red Raiders.
The first advantage I see for West Virginia in this spot will be on the offensive glass. The Mountaineers rank third in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage allowed at just 29.4%. This will be critical against a Texas Tech offense which has relied on its offensive rebounding ability to catalyze its otherwise inconsistent offense. Texas Tech ranks fourth in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage at 30.3%.
Without these second chances on the offensive end, a Texas Tech offense which ranks last in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage will once against struggle to establish consistency.
Additionally, the pressure of West Virginia’s defense should give the Red Raiders team ranks 283rd in turnover percentage some real issues. The Mountaineers ranks 49th in the nation in turnover percentage, creating turnovers on 21% of its opponents possessions.
On the other end, West Virginia will look to its offense, which ranks 15th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency, to propel it to a quarterfinal matchup with Kansas.
Specifically, West Virginia will look to win the battle on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. The Mountaineers rank 27th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, which will give them a major advantage against a Texas Tech defense which ranks 230th in the same category defensively.
In addition, West Virginia ranks 15th nationally in free-throw attempts, with 40.8% of their total field-goal attempts coming from the charity stripe.
Given these advantages on both ends I will gladly back a West Virginia team which is highly motivated to keep adding to its postseason resume.
Pick: West Virginia -2.5 (play to -3.5)
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
In the second game of the Big 12 Tournament opening round, we have an intriguing matchup between in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
This will be the third matchup between these two, with Oklahoma State winning both of the previous meetings rather convincingly.
Although these results bode well for the Cowboys in this matchup, it will be important to monitor the status of star guard Avery Anderson, who has missed Oklahoma State’s last nine games with a wrist injury.
The Cowboys have clearly been a different team without Anderson in the lineup, dropping five of the nine games he has missed.
Overall, Oklahoma State has been extremely reliant on its perimeter shooting to drive its success. The Cowboys attempt the second most 3s in the Big 12 with 41.3% of its total field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.
These perimeter shots will be hard earned against an Oklahoma defense which has allowed the fewest 3-point attempts in the Big 12 at just 22.8%.
On the other side, I predict a similar level of offensive struggle for Oklahoma against the defensive pressure Oklahoma State has been able to create.
The Sooners are turning the ball over on 20.9% of their offensive possessions, the highest rate in the Big 12. This will be an issue against an Oklahoma State defense ranking fourth in the Big 12 in turnover percentage, creating turnovers on 19.4% of its opponents possessions.
With Anderson’s availability still up in the air and Oklahoma’s tendency toward turnovers, I believe the best investment here is on the under in what is slated to be a highly contested game between two familiar in-state rivals.
