Butler vs Villanova Odds
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Butler heads to Philadelphia to attempt a season sweep of the Villanova Wildcats. There's NCAA tournament implications abound in this one, as Butler currently sits on the 10-seed line, per Bracket Matrix, while Villanova is still on the cusp of the bubble.
A win here brings the Wildcats into a tie with Providence for fifth place in the Big East. A Butler victory means the Bulldogs pull to .500 in conference play. High stakes mean plenty of motivation for each side.
From an ATS perspective, these teams meet coming off different trajectories. Butler hasn’t covered the closing line in three straight contests, while Villanova has covered four straight.
Villanova fans should rejoice, as the game will be played on-campus at Finneran Pavilion and not in an NBA arena.
Butler Bulldogs
Butler won the first game between the two in thrilling fashion, defeating Villanova by seven points in double overtime. The Bulldogs owned the glass, won the turnover battle and got to the foul line 22 times to Nova’s nine.
One of Butler’s many keys to victory was holding Villanova’s deadly outside shooters in check. Terrific transfers Jahmyl Telfort and DJ Davis went off as well.
Butler’s offense scored efficiently in the first game and should again, despite heading on the road. The Bulldogs run a ton of pick-and-roll action, a top-65 clip in the country, per Synergy, and thrive in it (top-45 in efficiency).
In the first game, Butler shredded Nova’s defense in ball screens, scoring 1.273 points per possession. On the season, the Cats have struggled to guard ball screens, and it cost them dearly in their first matchup with the Dogs.
Butler’s multiple ball handlers make it a difficult assignment for opposing defenses. When Telfort, Davis and Posh Alexander share the floor, Butler has three legitimate ball handlers who can bring the ball up, create off screens and facilitate. Pierre Brooks can also create his own shot and muscle smaller defenders at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds.
While Villanova has the size on paper to matchup with Butler’s stocky wing corps, it struggled to get stops in the first matchup. Big men Andre Screen and Jalen Thomas were able to impact the game on the interior, taking advantage of Nova’s lack of high-end frontcourt size.
Villanova Wildcats
Oftentimes this year, Villanova’s greatest weapon has been Eric Dixon at the five. What Dixon lacks in height at just 6-foot-8, he more than makes up for in strength and shooting. Dixon can pull the slower-footed Butler centers to the perimeter and have his way with them on offense.
In the first game vs. Butler, Dixon scored 28 points, grabbed six boards and dished out five assists. Nova should run its offense through Dixon, whether on the block, at the pinch post or at the top of the key.
The Wildcats sometimes fall into the category of “live and die by the 3." With 47.5% of its shot attempts coming from deep this season, Nova ranks 14th nationally in 3-point attempt rate.
Unfortunately, the Cats rank just 202nd nationally in 3-point percentage, and though that number has improved in Big East play, it still ranks just fifth in the conference.
Nova’s shooters are much better than their performance this season. Dixon and TJ Bamba have been solid, and sophomore sharpshooter Brendan Hausen is a stone-cold killer. But guys like Tyler Burton, Mark Armstrong, Justin Moore, Hakim Hart and Jordan Longino have really struggled.
As mentioned above, Nova got to the line just nine times in the first meeting, which is criminal considering it leads the country in free-throw percentage. Moore, Bamba and Armstrong are more than capable of creating off the bounce, and Dixon’s strength makes him a load to stop on the block.
Settling for outside shots has hurt the Cats all season.
Butler has been poor defensively in Big East play; there's no reason to let the Dogs off the hook by settling for 3s. Attacking the paint – whether by post-up or dribble penetration – is the key to manufacturing points in this game.
Butler vs. Villanova
Betting Pick & Prediction
In a game featuring the two best free-throw shooting and ball-handling teams in the Big East, we should expect a clean contest with limited mistakes. Oftentimes these types of games come down to who shoots better from deep and who wins the aggression battle.
In the first meeting, that was Butler. We’ll see if Villanova can turn the tables.
The spread is right around where it should be at — six points. Butler has proven its ability to win on the road, and there’s no shame in the three contests it’s dropped in the past four games to league giants UConn, Marquette and Creighton.
Villanova seems to be waking up from its January malaise, when it dropped five straight and fell out of the tourney picture. But can we trust head coach Kyle Neptune?
This game feels like a tight one, with Villanova ultimately coming out on top. Butler should be able to keep it close the whole way and cover the two-possession spread.
