BYU vs Kansas Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Fresh off a 19-point drubbing of Texas without Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas welcomes BYU to Allen Fieldhouse as it's looking to keep its record perfect at home.
The Cougars lost by double digits to Kansas State just four days after picking up a marquee win against Baylor in Provo. They remain on the road for this bout against a Big 12 heavyweight and are looking to put aside their road woes and pull off a key upset.
BYU Cougars
If there’s been one underlying concern amid BYU’s first season in the Big 12, it’s the Cougars' home/road splits.
Take the last week and a half for instance: The Cougars lost to the lowly Oklahoma State on the road before returning to Provo and exacting revenge on Baylor. Four days later, they lost by double digits at Kansas State.
Haslametrics ranks BYU 355th in its away-from-home metric. In fact, Mark Pope’s squad is 2-6 in true road games this season, and the Cougars' lone wins have come against West Virginia and UCF.
BYU is also currently last in positive momentum.
The Cougars were early-season analytical darlings, and it made sense as to why. This is a team that can efficiently shoot the 3 ball and can stretch the floor five deep. Nearly half of all its shots come from distance, as BYU actually shoots more catch-and-shoot 3s (33%) than finishes at the rim.
Still, this is KenPom’s ninth-ranked offense in terms of adjusted efficiency. This isn’t a team that will draw fouls and create a slugfest — it prefers a slowed-down, half-court type of game. This is a team that won’t shoot itself in the foot and has the ability to create second-chance opportunities, despite not being a physical squad.
The way to break down this defense is by pushing transition. BYU is 336th in transition defense, per ShotQuality, and sits just inside the top 200 defending finishes at the rim. The Cougars are often attacked in the pick-and-roll, and we saw in the Baylor game last week that their weakness is Aly Khalifa defensively.
Teams with elite and physical players can often find success inside. BYU covers the perimeter extremely well and cleans up on the glass.
This is a deep roster that's extremely experienced, with just the aforementioned Khalifa not being part of this roster last season.
Kansas Jayhawks
Despite McCullar’s absence on Saturday, Kansas had no problem steamrolling Texas inside the Phog. All five starters scored in double figures, as the Jayhawks scored 1.23 points per possession.
Now they face a weaker interior defense and less athletic squad in BYU. Kansas looks to attack the rim at a high volume, so this poses as a great matchup for it.
KU shoots less than 30% of its total attempts from the perimeter; instead, it looks to work the ball to superstar big man Hunter Dickinson while cutting off-ball. Nearly 40% of all attempts come at the rim, where the likes of Dickinson and KJ Adams Jr. operate.
McCullar’s injury is a massive loss for Kansas. While the Jayhawks may be able to mask it against slightly-weaker defenses, their biggest issue is their lack of depth. The Jayhawks are 338th in bench minutes, and McCullar is the Jayhawks’ leading scorer (19.0 PPG), as well as a strong facilitator (4.4 APG) and rebounder (6.4 RPG).
In his absence, Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake has stepped in. While he hasn’t found as much success from 3 this season, he did shoot 40%+ in his previous two years with the Tigers.
This is a free-flowing Kansas offense that ranks No. 1 in the country in assist rate (67.7%). This is an elite 2-point offense (18th) that's as experienced as it comes.
On the opposite end of the floor, Kansas provides elite rim protection. It's 10th in 2-point defense and deters opponents away from the 7-foot-2 Dickinson. Teams try to pick apart the Jayhawks through the pick-and-roll (17% frequency rate), though it hasn’t come with much success.
Kansas does a good job cleaning up on the glass and not finding itself in foul trouble — a big key with depth issues. This is a team that gives up a lot of 3s (40.8%, 294th) and has — at times — struggled to defend the perimeter. KU ranks 141st in 3-point defense.
Despite its issues from 3, Kansas allows just 20% of all 3s to be open and ranks inside the top 20 in shot selection, per ShotQuality.
Kansas is also 34th in home-court advantage, per KenPom. It hasn't lost a game at Phog all season, and that includes wins over Connecticut and Houston, among others.
BYU vs Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
BYU is not the type of team that can wear down Kansas and take advantage of its limited depth. This is an offense that likes to attack from deep and will rarely take the opposition off the dribble and downhill.
I’m expecting the Cougars’ struggles on the road to continue on Tuesday. While they can score in big numbers, I’m not sure how this defense is going to stop players like Dickinson and Adams around the rim. These are two physical bigs that should be able to take advantage of players like Khalifa and Noah Waterman, among others.
While I lean Kansas laying the 6.5-7 points out on the market, I would rather trade live for less than three or parlay the Jayhawks on the moneyline with another slight favorite (a team like Colorado State, for instance).
McCullar’s absence is definitely a significant one, but this BYU team is not physical enough — especially on the defensive end — to stifle KU.
A player that I think holds a lot of value on the prop market is the aforementioned Adams. All eyes will be on stopping Dickinson — and I’m not sure BYU can — but the physicality that Adams brings is a huge upper hand against a team like BYU that's soft near the rim.
In games where McCullar hasn't played, Adams has scored 13+ in 3-of-4, and the lone under (five points) was a game in which he finished 1-for-10 from the field. His usage definitely sees an uptick without KU’s leading scorer, and he’s shot seven-plus times in all four games.
The line is currently not available, but it sat around 11.5 on Saturday against Texas. I would assume the line will remain around that 11.5-12.5 number, and I would hop right aboard.
