Casual basketball fans consider the Champions Classic the official start of the college hoops season, but we've been keeping you in the loop since mid-October.
To celebrate the occasion, our staff has Champions Classic best bets and picks for Michigan State vs Duke and Kentucky vs Kansas.
Champions Classic Best Bets
| Time (ET) | Bets |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| Full Event | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Michigan State vs. Duke
Michigan State +3
By Kevin Rogers
Michigan State hasn't looked sharp in its first two games of the season, as the Spartans were shocked by James Madison in overtime and held off Southern Indiana.
Tom Izzo’s team heads to the United Center in Chicago to face Duke, which has also split its first two games after losing at home to Arizona.
The Spartans were heavy favorites in each of their first two games, but now sit in the underdog role. MSU struggled to a 6-9 ATS mark when receiving points last season, which included a win in the Champions Classic against Kentucky in overtime.
The Blue Devils only had two players score in double figures in the Arizona loss, while shooting 20-of-42 as a team from 2-point range.
Michigan State has shot an ugly 2-of-31 from 3-point land in two games, so hopefully — for them and us — the change of venue will help.
These teams haven’t met since the 2022 NCAA tournament when Duke eliminated Michigan State in the second round, 85-76.
It's time back Michigan State in the underdog role against Duke on Tuesday.
Pick: Michigan State +3
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Duke -3
This isn’t simply a reaction to Michigan State’s opening loss to James Madison. After all, the Spartans shot 1-for-20 from long range and lost by three. They also missed a staggering 14 foul shots in that game.
I’m putting that aside when handicapping Tuesday night’s meeting between the Blue Devils and Spartans.
On the floor, I just view this game as one that Duke is likely to win this season. When Duke faces teams without a true rim protector, I view it as a top-five offense. Kyle Filipowski and Mark Mitchell have a chance to hurt an undersized Michigan State frontcourt.
Coen Carr, Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko will be rotating in and out of the lineup, but none stand above six-foot-nine. Filipowski already ranks top-20 in “NBA Efficiency” and is primed to eat up these defensive assignments.
Then there’s the pace factor. When Duke slows things down, its defense reaches an elite level. For the very same reason I was bullish on Arizona against Duke last week (tempo + offensive efficiency), I’m fading Michigan State because I don’t trust it to effectively play up-tempo for 40 minutes.
The last two seasons, the Spartans have been a plodding attack under Coach Izzo, and I’m not buying their early tilts against JMU and Southern Indiana as true evidence that they’re now a team comfortable playing up-tempo.
This Michigan State offense is still structured to rely heavily on the 3-point shot, and even though Sparty is clearly due for a positive regression from deep, the early returns have been troubling (2-for-31).
Barring a major bounce-back where they hit 10+ triples, I don’t see them getting over the hump here without a masterful game from Tyson Walker. I think that’s asking too much of their senior guard, who will be a marked man in the Duke game plan.
I would play this all the way up to Duke-4.
Pick: Duke -3 (Play to -4)
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Kentucky vs. Kansas
Kentucky +5.5
By D.J. James
Kentucky is a little bit underrated going into the season. Kansas is the No. 3 team on KenPom against Kentucky’s top-15 rank.
John Calipari has an incredibly short bench, but adding Tre Mitchell was valuable. Kentucky starts three key freshmen in Justin Edwards, Rob Dillingham and DJ Wagner. Reed Sheppard and Jordan Burks also get significant playing time as freshmen.
Even though it took place against weak competition, Kentucky only turned the ball over 6.6% of the time through two games. This bodes well against a team like Kansas, which turned over opponents 20.3% of the time last season.
Now, Hunter Dickinson is one of the best posts in the country, but the Wildcats have some length down low. They can guard him with Mitchell. At worst, Mitchell should help Kentucky cut into the rebounding abilities of Dickinson.
In the backcourt, Wagner and Dillingham can handle Elmarko Jackson and Dajuan Harris Jr.
Now, the major difference for Kansas in this game is its 3-point shooting ability. Kentucky only shot 32.7% against Texas A&M-Commerce and New Mexico State. Harris, Dickinson and Nicolas Timberlake (off the bench) all shot over 40% last season. However, they're not going to shoot a ton of 3s as a whole, so this could help Kentucky.
Adding on, Kansas is allowing opponents (Manhattan and NC Central) to shoot around 29% from outside.
Lastly, this game is played at a neutral court. Yes, Kansas is experienced, but Kentucky looks to be just as talented.
With that being the case, the Wildcats should cover the +5.5 number. Take it to +4.
Pick: Kentucky +5.5 (Play to +4)
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Kentucky +5.5
By John Feltman
I keep reiterating the point that we don't have much data on these two teams, but I simply think this spread is too large. KenPom makes this game Kansas -4, and that’s before adjusting to how talented these young Cats are.
I realize Kansas now has Michigan transfer Dickinson — alongside an experienced supporting cast — but I think this Kentucky team has a chance to be really special this year. Through two games, these Cats are 12th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
They’ve also done a terrific job of protecting the basketball, as they're sixth in turnover%.
I also really like West Virginia transfer Mitchell, who's fully capable of containing Dickinson down low.
Yes, this backcourt lacks experienced — led by freshmen Wagner and Dillingham — but they may be more talented than the Jayhawks' starting guard duo of Harris and Jackson.
I don’t doubt the Jayhawks' talent and experience — they're ranked No. 3 in KenPom for a reason. However, this seems like a bit of an inflated line, and I’ll happily go the higher variance route with Kentucky here.
Pick: Kentucky +5.5
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Michigan State +2.5 & Kentucky +5.5
This one qualifies as the rare auto-bet for me. Annually, I’ve taken to betting both underdogs at this event. I did so last year and both dogs won outright.
In the last eight years of the Champions Classic, there have been 15 favorites (with one-game that was a pick ‘em). Those favorites are 4-11 ATS and just 7-8 outright.
These four programs are among the best in the nation, but even they are liable to early-season volatility. If anything, programs of this caliber are even tougher to pinpoint early in the season, given how many freshmen and transfers are expected to contribute right away for these coaches.
There’s just not a complete enough picture about these teams to feel comfortable laying points. I’m taking both underdogs to cover, with a smaller sprinkle on their moneylines.
Maybe this trend breaks one of these years, but until it does, I’ll be here every November to remind you.
