The Chattanooga Mocs (0-1) visit the Saint Mary’s Gaels (1-0) on Thursday, starting at 10:00 p.m. ET from Moraga, CA. The game is streaming live on ESPN+.
The Gaels are 13-point favorites over the Mocs on the spread (Saint Mary’s -13), with the over/under currently at 141 points. The Gaels are -750 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while the Mocs are +525 to pull off the upset.
Let's dive into my Chattanooga vs. Saint Mary’s predictions for Thursday, Nov. 7.
Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's Odds
| Chattanooga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
- Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's spread: Saint Mary's -16.5
- Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's over/under: 136.5 points
- Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Saint Mary's -1600, Chattanooga +900
- Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's best bet: Saint Mary's -13
Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 7 |
| Start Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's is scheduled for a 10 p.m. ET start time, live from the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA, on Thursday. The game is live on ESPN+.
Chattanooga vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
Both teams got their seasons started on Monday. Neither covered the spread, albeit in vastly different circumstances. Chattanooga took a beating at USC, while Saint Mary’s got all it could handle from a mega-experienced team in Towson.
Context matters, though. The Mocs were missing three key pieces in that loss to the Trojans and shot an abysmal 6-of-34 (17.6%) from beyond the arc. That frigid shooting was even worse in the first half (2-of-15, 13.3%), and the game quickly got away from Chattanooga.
I fully expect shooting regression for the Mocs as Earl’s offenses do a terrific job creating open looks. In fact, Chattanooga ranked third and first nationally in 3-point attempt rate the past two years, per KenPom.
The Mocs have plenty of shooters, led by the star-studded backcourt duo of Honor Huff and Trey Bonham. Both veteran guards were named to the SoCon Preseason All-Conference team.
USC kept that pair under wraps as they combined to shoot just 6-of-27 from the field. USC’s gigantic guards really bothered the smaller Huff and Bonham, but Saint Mary’s doesn't have that kind of perimeter length.
The bigger question, then, is the health of the Mocs’ two major missing pieces: physical forward Frank Champion, a Division II transfer, and slashing wing Bash Wieland, a newcomer from Bellarmine.
Without that duo, Chattanooga struggled with USC’s size. Champion’s brutish play in the paint was particularly missed.
Reporting around their absences is sparse, with no timeline given for their potential returns. I’m expecting a conservative approach with neither playing Thursday, but their status is worth monitoring.
This matchup is also a shaky one for a Mocs team that wants to generate spot-up looks. Randy Bennett’s Gaels play one of the best drop coverage schemes in the country, refusing to help off the wings and instead forcing opposing guards to make plays in ball screens.
The Gaels’ defense ranked eighth nationally in 3-point attempt rate last year, making this a major “strength-on-strength” matchup between Chattanooga’s long-range attack and SMC’s defensive scheme.
Bennett also has terrific individual defenders within that scheme. Big man Mitchell Saxen is arguably the best defender in the WCC and his backup — Harry Wessels — is an active and mobile 7-footer. Point guard Augustas Marciulionis and wing Luke Barrett are solid perimeter pieces with experience in this system.
Marciulionis is also the Gaels’ maestro on the offensive end. The reigning WCC Player of the Year is a steady on-ball presence who strikes a near-perfect balance between deftly setting up his teammates and creating his own shot.
Complementary scoring is a question mark entering this season. Rising sophomore Jordan Ross barely saw the court last season and Barrett is a former walk-on who is largely just a catch-and-shoot role player.
Freshman Mikey Lewis flashed potential against Towson in his debut, so keep an eye on the rookie.
Notably, SMC has almost zero depth. Three starters played 36+ minutes in the opener, and a fourth (Ross) logged 33. Fortunately, Chattanooga doesn't aggressively attack the rim, so foul trouble is unlikely to be a major problem.
Another key factor is Saint Mary’s home record. SMC is 29-1 in its past 30 November games as a favorite of 10+ points, but covering is a different story. The Gaels are just 10-10 ATS in their past 20 games across that sample (home favorite of 10+).
Plus, Chattanooga doesn't have to travel all that far, simply flying up the California coast from L.A. That sure beats flying cross country from the hills of Tennessee.
However, a shorthanded mid-major playing a second physical power conference foe in a week is a worrisome premise for the Mocs.
I like the Gaels, though I expect them to take money and the line to ascend.
Pick: Saint Mary's ATS
