Cincinnati vs Kansas Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | +310 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | -400 |
On Monday, the Kansas Jayhawks will head back to Allen Fieldhouse in an angry mood following a loss at West Virginia.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawks' opponent — Cincinnati — lost at home against the feisty Oklahoma Sooners. Losing in your own building and immediately heading to America's toughest road environment isn't ideal for Wes Miller & Co.
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas entered the season as KenPom's No. 2-ranked team and the AP Poll's No. 1-ranked team. Now Kansas sits 18th in KenPom and likely outside the top 10 in the next AP Poll (as of writing).
I wouldn't call Kansas a disappointment in the same way Michigan State has been, but people thought Kansas could secure a one-seed with relative ease. That's now looking like a long shot.
The biggest issue isn't that Kansas lost on the road against West Virginia; it's how Kansas lost against West Virginia. The Jayhawks allowed 91 points with 1.28 points per possession. Plus, Kansas failed to secure multiple rebounds in the game's final minute.
Kansas struggled to slow down the Mountaineers' shooting, allowing 15 3's. Those struggles shouldn't continue against the Bearcats, as Cincinnati's offense prefers attacking from 2-point range rather than outside.
Johnny Furphy, a highly skilled freshman from Australia, has emerged as a legitimate starter for KU. He scored 28 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in two games last week. Furphy's shooting ability (37% from 3) greatly benefits Kansas' offense.
Moreover, Furphy is an outstanding complimentary piece to stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. Dickinson (19 PPG, 11 RPG) has settled in nicely at Kansas, while McCullar is averaging over 20 points per game. That duo is perhaps the best one-two punch in college basketball.
Dickinson is the player I'm really looking at here. He's awesome in all matchups, but this one is particularly favorable.
Cincy left Aziz Bandaogo one-on-one against Dayton star DaRon Holmes II with occasional backside help, which led to Holmes erupting for 27 points. Coach Miller should adjust and flash more doubles on the catch, or Dickinson will own the paint.
Kansas is capable of blowing teams out in the legendary Allen Fieldhouse. Thankfully for the Bearcats, teams haven't blown them out often.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats are 2-3 in conference play, with four games decided by four or fewer points. They depend on playing close games, which leads to a ton of variance in the win-loss column.
Additionally, part of the reason Cincinnati plays so many tight games stems from playing elite defense with a shaky offense. The Bearcats boast an elite No. 22 ranking in Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom. In contrast, Cincy sits at No. 68 in Offensive Efficiency, one of the worst marks in the Big 12.
While Kansas lucks out with two star players, Cincy doesn't have one bonafide go-to stud. Versatile forward Viktor Lakhin is the most reliable option (13.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG), but KJ Adams Jr. — a defensive dynamo — is a nightmare matchup for Lahkin.
That means big games from guards Dan Skillings Jr. (11.2 PPG) and Day Day Thomas (11.1 PPG) could be necessary in a rowdy road game.
Thomas scored 21 points against TCU in an overtime thriller last week, so he's fully capable of putting together huge games. It'll have to come against the defensively-sound Dajuan Harris Jr., though. That's a fairly difficult task for anyone, especially someone playing in Lawrence for the first time.
Cincinnati rarely attempts perimeter jumpers, attempting 3s on only 34% of its field goals while connecting on 34% of those looks. That's just not the DNA of Cincinnati's offense, and not having an established perimeter attack feels like a huge problem against the Jayhawks in Lawrence.
Cincinnati can't replicate anything West Virginia did against KU — besides dominating the glass (which felt like a fluke) — because of how differently these offenses operate.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
It feels like the market is heavily penalizing Kansas after some disastrous road outings against UCF and West Virginia.
However, the one thing we know about college hoops is how difficult it is to win on the road.
Right now, KenPom lists Kansas as the No. 18 team in America, which feels light based on its talent level and performance so far.
I'm banking on a strong outing following the worst loss of Kansas' season.
Rock Chalk, folks.
