Clemson vs Duke Odds, Pick
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Saturday features an ACC showdown between the two best bigs in the conference — and two of the best bigs in the sport.
The Duke Blue Devils, who enter the game at 14-4, host the 13-5 Clemson Tigers.
Here's Clemson vs. Duke odds and a pick for Saturday.
Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils have shown some streaky tendencies so far this season. After starting the year ranked No. 2 nationally, they lost three of their first eight games, including two head-scratching losses against Arkansas and Georgia Tech.
Then Duke won eight consecutive games, including an impressive neutral-site victory over Baylor.
Duke looked really shaky in the past three games, though. In a seemingly "easy" stretch on paper, Duke narrowly evaded Georgia Tech for a second time, lost to Pitt and had trouble breaking past Louisville.
The main problem in the Georgia Tech/Pitt games came on defense, as the Blue Devils allowed 80+ points in both games. However, all-world defender Mark Mitchell was out, and last year's tournament loss against Tennessee showed how irreplaceable Mitchell is.
The Blue Devils' strength is on offense, mainly with All-American forward Kyle Filipowski, who's developed into an elite two-way big man. Filipowski is averaging 19 points and nine rebounds with efficient percentages of 50% shooting and 39% from 3.
The biggest stride in Filipowski's game has come on the defensive end. At times during his freshman year, his defensive weaknesses got exposed in an unfamiliar position for him. Having Dereck Lively II at the five pushed Filipowski to the four, which brought him to the perimeter more often and exposed his lack of foot speed.
My one concern about Duke is pretty simple: Who's stepping up besides Filipowski? This matchup could be difficult for Filipowski against the strong defense of Clemson's Ian Schieffelin, so getting strong outings from others is key.
The success hinges on guards Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain. All three can go off on individual big scoring runs, but none have emerged as "the guy." Proctor is coming off a 24-point outing against Louisville, and the other two scored 10 points in the win.
While there's no bonafide stud guard, having three high-level guards is impressive. And that leads to a really low turnover rate (13.5%, which ranks top-five nationally).
Duke hasn't covered the spread in three straight games. Will that streak end?
Clemson Tigers
The Clemson Tigers can never get out of their own way. Last year, Clemson floundered late and missed the NCAA tournament.
This year, in the early part of ACC play, Clemson lost three straight before picking up a major win at Florida State last Saturday to buck the trend.
Unsurprisingly, Clemson's Achilles' heel is on defense — the Tigers rank a ghastly 93rd in Defensive Efficiency. That's a fairly brutal number for a tournament-level team, especially when it ranked in the top 50 in Defensive Efficiency during the non-conference slate.
Clemson struggles to stay in front of speedy guards. That could prove problematic against the quick Duke guards in this one.
While Filipowski is incredible, don't sleep on Clemson star PJ Hall, who needs a huge performance in a raucous environment. The goal for opposing players is for the Cameron Crazies to despise you after 40 minutes. I mean, just ask Blake Hinson.
Hall, a dominant 6-foot-10 big man, is averaging 19.7 points and seven rebounds per game. He's one of the ACC's best players.
The Tigers' next two best scorers are backcourt starters — Joe Girard III (14.8 PPG) and Chase Hunter (11.8 PPG). Girard is no stranger to putting up big scoring performances in ACC road games, dating back to his days at Cuse.
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Clemson vs. Duke
Betting Pick & Prediction
Duke's defense should pick apart Clemson early and often. It just comes down to getting stops, and I could see Duke's defense succeeding.
Neither of Clemson's guards break opponents down in one-on-one situations like Naithan George of Georgia Tech and Pitt's Blake Hinson.
Duke should get out to an early lead and keep its foot on the gas all game.
Back the blue blood.
