We're officially back from the college basketball holiday break today, as we finally have a full slate of matchups and some strong betting value on the odds board.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's two top picks for Thursday, December 28.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Montana State vs. Idaho State
By D.J. James
Idaho State and Montana State are two of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball. The Bengals rank 315th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, with an average of 20.1 seconds per possession on offense (359th). The Bobcats rank 297th in Adjusted Tempo and average 18.4 seconds per possession.
Both of these offenses are brutal, too. Idaho State ranks 260th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Bengals shoot 28.1% from deep and 68.1% from the free-throw line. The Bengals do shoot over 55% from inside the arc, but, per ShotQuality, they rank 264th in Rim-and-3 Rate. They also rank 219th in points per possession at the rim.
The Bobcats rank 302nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom). They rank 17th in 3-point attempt rate, but they're only shooting 30.5% from beyond the arc. They rank 74th in Open 3 Rate, which is reasonable given how poor they are in every other offensive facet of the game. However, they have two players shooting over 37% from outside.
Idaho State doesn't allow many 3s. In fact, it ranks first in defensive 3-point attempt rate, and opponents are shooting only 29.7% from deep on it.
Montana State also restricts the arc, as the Bobcats are holding opponents to 26.8% from 3-point range.
So, since both teams guard the perimeter well and neither has a high-octane offense, the under should be in play. Take it to 132.
Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 132)
USC vs. Oregon
By Doug Ziefel
Pac-12 play kicks off with an excellent matchup as the USC Trojans take on the Oregon Ducks.
Looking at the Trojans, they haven't gotten off to the start many thought they would, as they enter this game 6-5 on the season.
However, USC has an opportunity to show us why it was a preseason top-25 team in KenPom's rankings, as it can light it up against the Ducks.
Oregon has been riddled with injuries, and this has impacted it significantly on the defensive end of the floor. While the Ducks enter this matchup 61st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, we need to shrink that sample size, as they won't be playing an inferior opponent.
The Ducks have allowed 80 or more points in four of their 11 games this season — three of those came to teams inside KenPom's top-100 rankings.
However, the Trojans have given up more than their fair share of points this season, too.
Combined, these two teams are 12-10 to this number and are projected to go over tonight. With both teams looking to make a statement at the start of conference play, we should expect the scoreboard to be well-lit.
Pick: Over 148.5 (Play to 150.5)
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