A massive Saturday slate means one thing: betting value.
So, below we have college basketball best bets and our staff's three top picks for Saturday, January 6.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 2:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rutgers vs. Iowa
By D.J. James
The Iowa Hawkeyes own a top-30 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with a putrid defense, which ranks 126th in the country. However, their opponent on Saturday will be the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who rank 230th on offense and 13th in defense, per KenPom.
The Hawkeyes do play a quick game. They're ninth in Adjusted Tempo, but they do average 17.1 seconds per possession on defense, which can slow down this game.
Rutgers ranks 216th in Adjusted Tempo, but it averages 19.2 seconds per possession on defense. This ranks 360th in the nation.
The Hawkeyes are shooting 33.8% from deep and 53.8% from inside the arc. They also rank 196th in free-throw attempt rate. None of these are particularly sharp, considering their overall rank, but Iowa does rank seventh in offensive turnover rate, which will negate an edge Rutgers tends to hold over its opponents.
The Scarlet Knights are turning opponents over at the 11th-best rate in the nation and rank 74th themselves on offense. Don't expect much of this game to be played in transition.
Offensively, the Knights are abhorrent. They own a 28.9% 3-point rate and 45.6% 2-point rate. Yes, they're getting to the line at the 73rd-best rate in the country, but they're only shooting 65.7% as a unit from there.
Don't expect Iowa’s defense to factor into this game too much. Rutgers should miss shots against anyone.
This is why the under should be in play from the onset of the ballgame. Take the under to 148.
Pick: Under 150.5 (Play to 148)
Providence vs. Creighton
The market is against me here – the total has jumped three points since open – but I can’t see why. I don’t know how either team scores.
Providence is primarily a post and isolation offense. Under normal circumstances, Bryce Hopkins could cook Creighton’s drop-coverage scheme with his elite interior iso shot creation.
Without him, things look grim on offense. Without Hopkins, the Friars likely try to funnel offense through Devin Carter on the perimeter and Josh Oduro in the post.
But the KalkDrop denies perimeter buckets and at-the-rim opportunities, funneling ball-handlers into the mid-range. I don’t see anyone but Hopkins eating in that scenario.
Funny enough, Providence is primarily an isolation defense. The Friars leverage athleticism to switch everything aggressively and force opposing ball-handlers to execute one-on-one.
It’s likely the perfect scheme to stop Creighton’s continuity offense, which runs many off-screen and hand-off sets on the perimeter to generate open jumpers.
But the switch will neutralize that, and the Jays don’t have iso-ball scorers – guys that can execute one-on-one against the Friar defenders. Baylor Scheierman is becoming a go-to guy, but the Jays are scoring only .61 isolation PPP, which ranks 306th nationally.
Creighton could dump the ball down low to Kalkbrenner, but Oduro is an elite interior defender. He’s allowing only .50 post-up PPP, ranking in the 92nd percentile of D-I defenders. He spearheads an interior defense that ranks third nationally in 2-point defense (41%).
Kim English should let Oduro handle Kalkbrenner while everyone else switches and swarms Creighton’s perimeter actions, throwing off the entire offense and leading to low-efficiency isolation opportunities.
I downgrade Providence’s defense slightly without Hopkins. But while he’s the team’s best scoring option, he’s the team’s fourth-best defender by DBPR. His absence will mean more offensively than defensively.
Based purely on the schematic matchup, I’m banking on a low-scoring ball game. Sometimes, fading steam can be profitable!
Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 137)
Miami vs. Wake Forest
The Miami Hurricanes (11-2, 2-0) will head to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-3, 2-0).
Miami will be on the road, but my model is showing an edge in favor of the Hurricanes, and as a result, I'm seeing value on a spread.
Now, Wake Forest is certainly a formidable opponent, but I think there's too much home court bias in the current line.
When we look at the matchup between the two teams, we see that Miami is the more efficient team, with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 116.9 (23rd) and 100 (88th), respectively.
This is juxtaposed against a Wake Forest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.5 (33rd) and 102.1 (129th), respectively.
While both teams match up pretty evenly from an efficiency standpoint, there's still a clear edge to Miami of 4.5 points, which should help offset any home court advantage concerns in this game.
What Miami does exceptionally well is shoot. In fact, it's one of the best in the nation in effective field goal rate, connecting on 58.6% of shot attempts. This puts the Canes at fifth in the nation in this metric.
The Hurricanes have been phenomenal from 3-point range, and this has been one of the driving forces of the offense. They're making 41.6% of their attempts, which ranks second nationally.
I think this game will come down to the 3 ball, and I like how Miami matches up against the Wake Forest defense beyond the arc. The Demon Deacons rank just 129th in 3-point defense (32.3%).
Lastly, Miami plays at a much faster tempo than Wake Forest, and this should be important down the stretch, as the Hurricane should be able to create more opportunities in transition. Heading into this game, Miami averages nearly three more possessions per game.
My model is projecting Miami as 0.5-point favorites in this game. I like betting the Hurricanes to win this game outright at +155, and I would play this all the way down to +120.
Pick: Miami ML +158 (Play to +120)
Did you know legal betting is coming to the Tar Heel State? North Carolina sports betting is coming online in 2024, so you’ll be able to bet wager legally at major sportsbooks in NC.
