The college basketball slate thins out tonight and Friday, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had on the odds board, especially on Thursday.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's three top picks for Thursday, December 7.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa vs. Iowa State
Iowa and Iowa State will play their annual Cy-Hawk game at Hilton Coliseum in Ames on Thursday. The home team has won this matchup in each of the past three seasons, and the Cyclones will be looking for revenge after Iowa won in a 19-point blowout last season.
This matchup is a classic battle of strength vs. strength, as the perennially elite Iowa offense that loves to run the floor and get to the rim faces an elite Cyclones defense that applies a ton of ball pressure, slows teams down in the half court and forces opponents to shoot from the perimeter.
However, Iowa State's offense has some clear matchup advantages against Iowa's defense, which is why the Cyclones are favored at home.
KenPom's scoring projection is expecting north of 70 possessions in this game. However, neither meeting between these teams had more than 68 since Otzelberger took over in Ames. Additionally, there are still questions about whether Iowa State's offense has truly improved.
The matchup is an excellent opportunity for the Cyclones to take away the rim and force Iowa to shoot more from the perimeter. With the Cyclones controlling the glass and thus controlling the pace and forcing this game into the half court, the total is a few points too high.
The total opened as high as 158 at some shops, and is a consensus 157.5 as of writing. I'd bet the under at 153.5 or better.
Pick: Under 153.5
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Portland vs. North Dakota State
The books are giving us Shantay Legans plus points off a loss with an extra day of rest.
Even better, North Dakota State is coming off an overtime win over San Jose State on Monday.
It’s a great bounce-back spot for Shantay and a good letdown spot for the Bison.
But the most significant part of this handicap lies in the post.
Portland and North Dakota State are among the most post-heavy teams in the mid-majors. The Pilots run post-up sets at a 99th-percentile rate (15 times per game), while the Bison do so at an 85th-percentile rate (14 per game).
Portland has the upper hand down low.
On offense, the Pilots are scoring 1.05 PPP on post-up sets, ranking in the 85th percentile of D-I teams. On defense, they’re allowing .57 post-up PPP, ranking in the 96th percentile.
Conversely, the Bison are scoring .84 post-up PPP (47th percentile), while allowing .82 post-up PPP (53rd percentile).
The Pilots are shooting 56% on paint attempts, while allowing 38%. The Bison are shooting 32% in the paint and allowing 40%.
I love Portland tonight.
Why do I love Portland tonight?
Two of the most post-heavy teams in the mid-majors, and only one is shooting well in the paint. pic.twitter.com/l5mn9lJrIr
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) December 7, 2023
There’s your ballgame.
As they always do, the stats lie in the personnel.
Portland has an uber-versatile scorer in point guard Tyler Robertson, a 6-foot-6 matchup nightmare who loves playing with his back to the basket down low. He’s like Jalen Pickett in that regard.
He’s averaging 17 points per game, including eight in the paint, while scoring 1.3 PPP on post-up sets (96th percentile among D-I players). Behind him, the Pilots are top-30 nationally in 2-point shooting (56%).
Through Robertson, the Pilots can invert the floor and play inside-out. Players on the perimeter will run off-screen stuff to generate open 3s, with the team ranking 82nd nationally in 3-point rate (41.1%).
He should get anything he wants today because NDSU is small on the perimeter.
Point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas stands 6-foot, while running mate Jacari White stands 6-foot-3. The Bison run 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-5 on the wing.
None of those guys can match up with the bigger Robertson down low, and the quick-twitched Robertson will cook 6-foot-10 center Andrew Morgan off the bounce.
Portland Pilots junior Tyler Robertson has been having a fantastic season for Portland, and last weeks performance against LMU was certainly the pinnacle, recording 31 points (8/11 FG, 5/5 3PT, 10/10 FT), 11 rebounds, 11 assists (1 t/o) and 2 steals. pic.twitter.com/R85nPPhaVw
— Michael Houben (@michaelhoub) February 19, 2022
Generally, whoever’s bigger will win a post-heavy matchup. Portland ranks 52nd nationally in average height, while North Dakota State ranks 222nd.
I think the Bison are really missing Grant Nelson, who was a two-way force on the low block.
Last year, the 6-foot-11 Nelson could play alongside 6-foot-10 Morgan down low. This season, Morgan has moved to the 5, with 6-foot-5 Boden Skunberg replacing him at the 4. That poses another matchup issue against Portland’s 6-foot-8 power forward Tyler Harris, who’s dropping 14 points per game and six paint points per game.
Skunberg was a dreadful post-up defender last year (1.12 PPP allowed, 11th percentile). Morgan has been lousy this season (1.15 PPP allowed, 11th percentile), likely seeing regression because he has to shoulder the load without Nelson.
Could David Richman counter and play larger behind more minutes from 6-foot-9 Josh Streit and 6-foot-7 Jeremiah Burke? Sure, but the two are averaging only about 15 minutes per night, and I’m unsure if the legs will be there after an overtime win three days ago.
Another key to this game is owed shooting regression.
Portland is shooting only 30% from 3, while its opponents are shooting 38%. Pilot opponents are scoring 1.07 PPP on guarded jumpers, which is ridiculous given the Pilots have been solid at closing out, forcing guarded jumpers at an 80th-percentile rate.
Meanwhile, North Dakota State is shooting 40% from deep, while scoring an absurd 1.63 PPP on unguarded jumpers. You’re supposed to make your open shots, but no mid-major college roster can make 55% of them throughout an entire 30-something game season.
Portland should make more shots and allow fewer going forward, and vice versa for North Dakota State. Therefore, the Bison are overvalued, and the Pilots are undervalued.
And, as mentioned, Portland uses off-screen sets extensively to pop open shooters. North Dakota State has been miserable defending those sets (1.12 PPP allowed, 15th percentile). So, what better time for the Pilots to see some owed shooting regression?
Situationally, schematically and regressionally, I love Shantay’s Pilots on Thursday in Fargo. I’ll happily grab the points.
Pick: Portland +2.5 (Play to +2)
IUPUI vs. Eastern Illinois
By D.J. James
This is one of the worst games of the night, but the line for the total doesn't make sense.
The Eastern Illinois Panthers may rank 331st in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, but they average 17 seconds per possession defensively and rank 265th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Meanwhile, the IUPUI Jaguars rank 308th in Adjusted Tempo and average 16.7 seconds per possession offensively. The Jaguars rank 349th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Eastern Illinois is relatively good at hauling in offensive boards, despite shooting a putrid 38.4% from inside the arc. It ranks 126th in offensive rebounding, and the Jaguars rank 312th defensively.
IUPUI is stronger at getting to the rack and drawing contact. It ranks 145th in free-throw attempt rate, while Eastern Illinois ranks 318th in this metric defensively. IUPUI shoots around 73% from the strike, as well.
Now, a kicker in this game is that both teams turn the ball over often. Eastern Illinois ranks 305th in offensive turnover rate, while IUPUI ranks 324th. Since each team allows opponents to speed up defensively, much of this game could be played at the free-throw line and in transition.
Lastly, Eastern Illinois ranks 110th in Open 3 Rate, while IUPUI ranks 58th. Compared to the rest of these teams' statistics, these are solid marks.
Yes, neither team launches 3s more than 29% of the time, but they will take the right 3s. IUPUI shoots a collective 24.2% from deep, but it has Bryce Monroe, who shoots 40% from outside. Eastern Illinois shoots around 34% from outside as a unit.
Take the over in this game and play it to 133.
Pick: Over 132.5 (Play to 133)
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