The game of the night in college basketball lies in Tucson, where the Arizona Wildcats host the Colorado Buffaloes. But there's value across the odds board tonight.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets, including our staff's four top picks for Thursday, January 4.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Penn State vs. Michigan State
By D.J. James
Michigan State is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country; it ranks 306th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. The Spartans average 17.1 seconds per possession on offense and 18.1 seconds per possession on defense.
MSU will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday. Penn State ranks 65th in overall Adjusted Tempo, but it averages 18 seconds per possession on defense, which ranks 303rd in the country.
Now, Penn State has been pretty weak all around, except for a win over Ohio State in early December. The Nittany Lions rank 101st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They're particularly weak from downtown, shooting only 32% as a unit. They also hoist 3s often, ranking 87th in 3-point attempt rate.
This bodes well for the weakest link of the Michigan State defense, as opponents are shooting 30.8% from deep on the Spartans, while holding a 43% 3-point attempt rate.
That said, the rest of the MSU defense is strong. Opponents are only shooting 44.1% on the Spartans from inside the perimeter. PSU is shooting 52.3% from 2-point land, so it may not produce much from the interior.
Neither of these teams rebounds well on offense or defense. There shouldn't be much of a lopsided rebounding margin for either one, which should help reduce second-chance buckets.
Finally, both teams rank relatively well in offensive turnover rate, so much of the game should be played in the half court.
All of these factors should lean to an under.
Pick: Under 145 (Play to 144)
Green Bay vs. Detroit
By Sean Paul
The biggest surprise in the Horizon League is the Green Bay Phoenix, who knocked off Wright State and Robert Morris last week.
The biggest reason for their strong start is transfer guard Noah Reynolds, a dynamic scorer who posted 36 points in the win over Wright State.
Coach Sundance Wicks relies on 3-point shooting, as his team attempts triples on 42% of field goals and connects on 33% them. That’s a major key for Green Bay’s offensive attack, since the team plays one of the more deliberate tempos in college hoops.
If the shots aren’t falling, the night could get long quickly for Green Bay.
One major flaw for Green Bay is turnovers. The Phoenix give the ball away on 21% of possessions, which ranks 335th nationally. Playing such a slow pace shouldn’t lead to so many turnovers, so that’s an area worth addressing for Coach Wicks.
Thankfully, Green Bay faces arguably the worst team in America, the 0-15 Detroit Mercy Titans. I seriously believe UDM is the worst team in college hoops, and losing by 20+ to IUPUI should be all the convincing you need.
The offense is bad, the defense is bad and Jayden Stone is the team’s only reliable player.
I still think Green Bay is fairly undervalued, although Reynolds is really the only player on the team capable of dropping 20+. He just so happens to arguably be the best player in the Horizon League.
Pick: Green Bay -2.5 (Play to -4)
Towson vs. Monmouth
This game opened with Monmouth favored, and rightfully so. After a dismal season last year, the Hawks have made a turnaround, with as many wins in 2023-24 as they finished with in 2022-23 already.
The major difference maker came via the transfer portal, when Xander Rice chose to play his final collegiate season for his dad, Monmouth head coach King Rice.
The younger Rice is dropping 18.6 points per game, turning Monmouth from a cellar dweller in the CAA to a middle-of-the-pack team with a fighting chance in conference play.
This season, Monmouth has road or neutral wins versus Belmont and West Virginia, both better teams than Towson. By KenPom's rankings, Monmouth’s only loss to a team worse than Towson was a true road game against a solid Penn team.
Towson will hammer the glass, as it currently ranks second nationally in offensive rebounding. I don’t think that advantage is enough of a reason for this line to have flipped sides. KenPom and T-Rank both favor the Hawks at home by two points, so I'll gladly take +3.5.
Pick: Monmouth +3.5
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James Madison vs. Louisiana
James Madison (13-0, 1-0) will hit the road for the first time in the new year to defend its perfect record against Louisiana (7-6, 0-1).
The Dukes will look to continue their hot streak, but they'll have a tough test in this game against a Louisiana team that's won 19 straight at home. The Ragin’ Cajuns are defending Sun Belt Conference champs, but the start of this season has been a little bit of a disappointment
I like backing the Dukes here because they're the superior statistical team. They rank 33rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with an average of 114.3 points per 100 possessions. Inside the arc is where the Dukes are making their money, connecting on 56.1% of their 2-point attempts.
While James Madison has the better offense, I think the defense on a relative and absolute basis will be the differentiator in the game. James Madison and Louisiana rank 110th and 227th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, respectively.
There are some glaring problems for Louisiana in this matchup. First, the Ragin’ Cajuns struggle defending 2-point field goals (307th). Secondly, they're among the worst in the nation in defensive rebounds (357th). Lastly, their tempo is near the bottom quartile (276th).
This will still be a tough road test for James Madison, but I think that the better team will prevail. Plus, too much of last season’s success is being priced in here.
My model is projecting the Dukes as 9.5 favorites. I recommend laying the five points and playing this line up to 6.5.
Pick: James Madison -5 (Play to -6.5)
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