Saturday presents a loaded slate in the college basketball world as four top-25 matchups take centerstage.
Our staff is targeting four different games for their best bets, including an 11 a.m. ET tilt between Florida and Kentucky.
So, here's college basketball best bets and four picks for Saturday, January 4.
Top 4 College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 11 a.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida vs. Kentucky
By Doug Ziefel
It’s safe to say that the Florida Gators have been one of the hottest teams in the country, as they’re undefeated and have risen to No. 6 in the AP Poll.
However, with 2025 upon us, so is conference play, and the Gators will get their first SEC test in the form of the Kentucky Wildcats.
In their first season without John Calipari, the Wildcats have displayed an exciting brand of basketball. They’re 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 41st in effective field goal percentage.
Kentucky will utilize its athletic size to attack this Florida defense. The physicality and experience inside from seniors Andrew Carr and Amari Williams will be a lot to handle for Gators sophomore big man Alex Condon.
On the other end of the floor, Florida’s backcourt has carried the elite offensive production with shots from the perimeter. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard have combined to average 47 points per game, with the majority of their shots coming from 3.
Unfortunately for them, the Wildcats have been tough on perimeter shooters, ranking seventh in 3-point percentage allowed this season. If Kentucky can close out on the Gators' shooters, it’ll have the potential to go on some extended scoring runs.
Aside from how these teams match up, all the external factors point in Kentucky's favor. It’s at home, where it has yet to lose, and it’ll be the highest-ranked opponent Florida has faced thus far.
Not to mention, the Gators may also be looking ahead a bit, with top-ranked Tennessee looming on Tuesday.
Back the Wildcats to cover the spread at home.
Pick: Kentucky -2.5
Baylor vs. Iowa State
Kansas dropped its conference opener for the first time in 33 years on Tuesday night, highlighting the fact that the Big 12 is wide open in 2025.
Last season, Houston knocked Kansas off its perch at the top of the Big 12. Is it Iowa State’s turn now?
If Iowa State is serious about outclassing the likes of Kansas and Houston, it’ll need to make a statement on Saturday afternoon against Baylor.
When Iowa State poached T.J. Otzelberger away from UNLV he arrived on campus with a lot to prove. Yes, Coach Otz had turned South Dakota State into a regional power and mid-major darling, but his next stop was far from inspiring.
In two seasons with UNLV, he finished 29-30 with zero postseason appearances. Yet, Jamie Pollard, Iowa State’s Athletic Director, felt he had found the man to resurrect his basketball program.
In Otzelberger’s first season in Ames, the Cyclones finished fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. This wasn’t a scenario in which Coach Otz was fortunate to have inherited a stacked roster from Steve Prohm. The former Iowa State leading man had run the program aground, finishing 2-22 overall in 2021.
Otzelberger’s shocking defensive makeover made the Cyclones competitive right away (Sweet 16 run) and this commitment to defensive excellence remained in years two (8th) and three (1st).
But the rub on Iowa State was simple: It couldn’t be trusted on the offensive end on a nightly basis.
That was until this season. This year’s team has the firepower to win the Big 12, make the Final Four and win it all, in that order. As a team, the Clones are sharing the basketball incredibly well and knocking down their shots from all over the floor.
As a unit, they rank 11th nationally in shooting percentage and have risen to seventh in offensive efficiency, per Evan Miyakawa.
The Clones’ roster features six players in their rotation that average double figures, creating a pick-your-poison dilemma for their opponents. Keshon Gilbert, ISU’s go-to scorer, and Curtis Jones, one of the nation’s best sixth men, combine to average 33 points as a tandem.
This has given them enough punch offensively to beat anyone, evidenced by their 15-round battle with Auburn in Maui.
But Iowa State isn’t just in the moral victories business. It’s covering against quality opponents. Beating the likes of Marquette by 11 at home and Colorado by 10 on the road is an indication that the Clones are ready to put good teams away.
That brings us to Baylor on Saturday afternoon.
Baylor remains in the AP Top 25, but I contend that it’s a paper tiger. Since November 22, Baylor has played two consequential games. The Bears got run off the floor by Tennessee in a 15-point loss and then they were outlasted by UConn on the road, falling by two possessions.
Other than that they’ve been stacking wins against teams like New Orleans, Abilene Christian, Norfolk State and Arlington Baptist. Those performances will do little to prepare them for 40 minutes with Iowa State.
One of Baylor’s biggest bugaboos is their perimeter defense. The Bears’ guards, in particular, have struggled to rotate and close out on shooters. This explains why teams are shooting an otherworldly 37.5% from downtown against Baylor.
If Iowa State, a team that is far from 3-point dependent (230th in 3PA), gets hot from long range, Baylor will be in deep water.
Toss in the fact that Iowa State is third among power conference teams in turnover margin, and I foresee this one being a runaway at Hilton Coliseum.
I love Coach Otz and his Cyclones laying up to 10.5.
Pick: Iowa State -8.5 (Play to -10.5)
BYU vs. Houston
Houston runs the nation’s most aggressive and athletic ball-screen blitz, sending two to the ball on every screen to force havoc and turnovers. The Cougars also aggressively swarm and over-rotate on the interior, denying the paint and rim at all costs.
The best way to beat the blitz is through five-out spacing, crisp perimeter passing and lights-out weak-side spot-up shooting. Given its aggressive rotational nature, the blitz will undoubtedly allow plenty of 3-point opportunities — Houston ranks 293rd nationally in the 3-point rate allowed.
BYU runs the perfect offense to exploit that weakness.
Kevin Young’s dribble hand-off, zoom-heavy scheme ranks in the top-50 nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing, Shot Selection and Shot Making metrics. BYU ranks in the top 25 in 3-point rate, shooting 36% from deep on over 30 attempts per game.
BYU will attempt to play inside-out, and if Fousseyni Traore and Egor Demin can invite Houston’s early help before quickly dishing the ball back to the undermanned perimeter, the Cougars will generate plenty of open jumpers on Saturday.
On the other end of the court, Houston still relies on dribble creation, mid-range jumpers and second-chance points. BYU isn't a tremendous mid-range defense, and it’s merely average against ball-screen operators (.78 PPP allowed, 43rd percentile).
However, BYU is elite at preventing second-chance opportunities, leading the nation in defensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game allowed.
And without those precious put-back opportunities, Houston will be trading low-efficiency 2s (it’s shooting 48% from 2-point range, 272nd nationally) for high-efficiency 3s. That’s our route to a BYU cover.
I'm worried that Houston could light it up from 3, given that BYU runs an uber-compact defense that ranks 339th nationally in 3-point rate allowed. But while Houston is shooting 41% from deep, it still prefers to break defenses down on the interior, and I’d be surprised if that mark doesn’t regress.
Following four consecutive double-digit victories against KenPom sub-100 teams, I’m looking to catch Houston sleeping.
Pick: BYU +9.5 (Play to +9)
Michigan vs. USC
Michigan's passive, lackadaisical drop-coverage defense should give USC the middle of the court, which Musselman and Co. will happily take.
It’ll be tougher for USC to score on post-ups and cuts — things Matt Knowling and Josh Cohen love to do — so Desmond Claude and Saint Thomas must shoulder the scoring load via dribble penetration. That could be a blessing or a curse, depending on which version of the Trojans' backcourt shows up on Saturday.
Claude, Thomas and others should earn easy run-outs by forcing turnovers. Michigan is among the nation’s worst ball-handling teams, while the Trojans have four guys averaging over a steal per game.
On the other end of the court, USC must keep Michigan from crashing the glass and earning second-chance points, and I’m worried about the Trojans' roll-man defense against the country’s most unique four-five pick-and-roll duo (1.12 PPP allowed, 26th percentile).
However, USC is versatile and lengthy, ranking 23rd nationally in average height while running between 6-feet-4 and 6-feet-10 at every spot. So, it’s not inconceivable that the Trojans can match up with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin.
The Trojans are also a rock-solid rim-and-3 defense, which is uber-important against Michigan’s elite rim-and-3 attack. They’re also solid in transition denial (8.2 fast-break PPG allowed, 73rd percentile), which is key against the Wolverines’ up-tempo offense.
All in all, I don’t hate the schematic matchup for USC.
I’m also not confident in the Wolverines' ability to travel west for a conference battle — talk about a brutal travel situation. Big Ten home court is already so strong, and the added travel distance will likely strengthen it further.
Among those squads, the underdogs are 181-153-9 ATS, suitable for 14.7 units of profit at a 4.3% ROI.
Plus, Musselman hasn’t been awful in these spots. He picked off Duke and Texas A&M as a home ‘dog last season with Arkansas.
The market is baking in the situational angle, hence why the Trojans are only five-point underdogs despite most projection systems making them closer to eight-point 'dogs.
But I’m uncertain if the market has accounted for Michigan’s potential overperformance. Opponents have shot under 30% from 3 against the Wolverines when ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.
The Wolverines saw some of that negative regression against the Sooners and Razorbacks, who canned 21-of-48 (44%) of their 3-point attempts across Michigan’s two-game losing streak.
And it wasn’t long ago that the Wolverines barely held off a mediocre Wake Forest team by two in a “semi-away” game in Greensboro.
I’m willing to take a shot with the Trojans at home against a potentially overvalued Michigan team.
Pick: USC +6 (Play to +5)
