On Friday, we have UConn vs. Gonzaga and on Saturday, we have a massive slate of college basketball, including Purdue vs. Arizona.
But first, there's value to be had on the college basketball odds board for Thursday.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and odds, including Thursday's three top picks for December 14.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Furman vs. Tulane
By Greg Waddell
This should be a really fun game to watch, as it's a matchup between the fifth-fastest tempo vs. the 17th-fastest tempo. Tulane is playing slightly faster, but both teams love to get out and run.
That means that both teams will be extremely comfortable here.
Furman is 5-5, but it's played a bunch of really good opponents, including six games vs. KenPom top-200 teams and three games vs. KenPom top-100 teams. The Paladins will be more comfortably facing a high-quality opponent than Tulane will be, because they've done it before.
Tulane has only played two games vs. KenPom top-150 teams, and lost both (by 30 to Mississippi State and by three to Bradley). Furman is 136th on KenPom itself. We just haven't seen Tulane win a game against a team of the caliber of Furman yet this season.
Furman has three players averaging 16 or more points per game. Marcus Foster, JP Pegues and Alex Williams are all capable of shooting the Paladins to a victory on any given night, especially when the team they're playing plays a similar style and pace.
The analytics sites have this spread closer to five points. Furman can thrive in a game this up-tempo. It just feels like the better program with the better coach is getting too many points here in a spot where it really needs a win.
If you want to get risky, the moneyline has some value, but the safer play is just backing Furman to cover.
Pick: Furman +7.5 (Play +5.5)
Jacksonville State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is scoring more than usual. The Badgers rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency, averaging over 70 points per game. Wisco hasn’t ranked higher than 30th in the Greg Gard era and hasn’t averaged over 70 points per game since 2017.
They’re playing like your prototypical Wisco team, as in through the post with Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl.
For some reason, it’s working better this year, probably because of all the returning production from last year (five returning starters). A more experienced team should score more efficiently in the early going, and that's exactly what's happening.
That, and St. John’s transfer AJ Storr has been an offensive revelation on the wing, pouring in 14 points a night.
Regardless, Wisco matches up well here, as the Gamecocks’ interior defense isn’t great. Jacksonville State allows 1.02 post-up PPP, ranking 313th nationally.
The Gamecocks simply don’t have the size to match up down low with Wisco’s big men, running 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8 at the 4 and 5.
Ray Harper could opt to play the 6-foot-10 Mason Nicholson more. Still, Nicholson is playing only 10 minutes per game with porous interior defense (1.14 post-up PPP allowed), albeit in a small sample size (eight points allowed on seven possessions defended).
Wisco should get whatever it wants on Thursday.
However, Jacksonville State’s offense could score here.
Harper runs a pick-and-roll-heavy offensive attack spearheaded by two transfer guards, KyKy Tandy (Xavier) and Quincy Clark (Lipscomb). Combined, the two are averaging 28 points and five assists per game.
While you’d expect Gard’s pack line to be good against ball screens, Wisco’s ball-screen defense is lackluster (.83 pick-and-roll PPP allowed, 28th percentile). Chucky Hepburn (.90 PnR PPP allowed) and Max Klesmit (.96 PnR PPP allowed) aren’t defending much at the point of attack.
These are two slow-paced teams, but I think both can score efficiently here, and that’s all you need to cash a total sitting in the mid-120s.
Projections agree. The ShotQualityBets model projects this total closer to 135, while EvanMiya sits at 132 and KenPom at 127.
So, I’ll happily take an over that’s still sitting below 125 at FanDuel.
Pick: Over 124.5 (Play to 126)
Grambling vs. Drake
By D.J. James
The Drake Bulldogs take on the Grambling State Tigers on Thursday.
Grambling State is pretty weak, as it only has two wins over non-Division I competition and ranks 329th, per KenPom.
Drake ranks 65th, and more importantly, it's better offensively (57th) than defensively (93rd). Drake ranks 215th in Adjusted Tempo, but it utilizes only 16.6 seconds per possession on offense. The Bulldogs shoot 57.5% from inside the arc and 31.2% from outside. However, per ShotQuality, they rank 36th in Rim-and-3 SQ points per possession.
Grambling ranks 356th defensively in this metric, so the Bulldogs should have their way with the ball.
Now, Drake may not be efficient from deep, but it shoots 3s 40.7% of the time. Luckily for the Bulldogs, the Tigers rank 334th in Open 3 Rate on defense, so these shots should be clean looks for the Bulldogs.
Grambling ranks 254th in Adjusted Tempo, but it's weak when it comes to maintaining control of the ball. The Tigers have a 22.5% turnover rate, which ranks 351st in the country. Drake ranks 55th with a 20.9% defensive turnover rate, so look for the Bulldogs to get out in transition.
Finally, Drake ranks 49th in PPP at the rim, per ShotQuality. Grambling State ranks 351st defensively in PPP at the rim, so Drake should be efficient on the interior, as always.
This total is far too low, especially with Drake dictating the pace. Take this to 144.
Pick: Over 142.5 (Play to 144)
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