Conference tournament season is upon us!
The ASUN Tournament kicks off the madness of March this year with two games on Monday: Jacksonville vs. Kennesaw State and Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast.
Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave came through with a best bet for each of Monday's ASUN Tournament games, so continue reading for full breakdowns of both games.
College Basketball ASUN Tournament Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Three Man Weave's Ky McKeon is targeting from today's conference tournament slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
ASUN Tournament: Jacksonville vs. Kennesaw State
By Ky McKeon
Jacksonville barely qualified for its second ASUN Tournament in three years under head coach Jordan Mincy, edging out Central Arkansas in a tiebreaker for 10th place.
Kennesaw, the defending champions, took a major swoon down the stretch after an impressive nonconference performance and beginning of ASUN play.
Now, can Kennesaw rediscover its earlier form, or will Jacksonville’s top-ranked conference defense lead it to a surprise run through the bracket?
Kennesaw will likely be down a man in Jusaun Holt tonight, but the Owls have plenty of talent and won without Holt’s services earlier this season.
KSU also has one thing every team in America wants in March: a senior point guard leader.
Terrell Burden has seen it all at Kennesaw during his five seasons — he was on the 1-28 team back in 2020, and he was the heart and soul of last year’s NCAA Tournament squad. Guards win in March, and Burden has proven to be a winner and fearless leader.
KSU swept JU during the regular season and did the most important thing a team needs to do against the Dolphins: compete on the glass. JU is the league’s best offensive-rebounding team, and Mincy describes his style of play as that of a Big Ten team. The Dolphins are extremely physical, and this helps make up for their other shortcomings offensively.
On the other end, KSU should have no issue scoring.
While JU features the league’s best defense, the ASUN is the most efficient league in the country, meaning a “good” defense really isn’t that good. The Owls scored efficiently in Game 1, but they happened to be ice-cold from 3 in Game 2 in a low-scoring win.
This game will feature a heavy contrast in styles. No team in the country plays faster offensively than KSU, while JU is firmly a half-court team.
Given the two-game history, where KSU’s style prevailed and the Owls stopped JU on the glass, we’re going with Kennesaw for the win and cover. Burden will lead the way.
Pick: Kennesaw State -2 (Play to -3)
BONUS BET FROM COLLIN WILSON
I'm opposite Ky for this one, as the Owls had plenty of troubles down the stretch in conference play, losing nine of their final 11 games. Kennesaw State posted a negative offensive efficiency over the past month, taking a sharp downward trend in points per possession over the final five games. Although the Owls beat Jacksonville twice during the season, the combined winning margin was nine points.
Jacksonville provided the third-highest defensive efficiency of all Atlantic Sun teams over the final month of play. The Dolphins own a top 130 Division I rank in turnover rate, including a rank of 80th in steals.
While defense has been the reason for improvement, look for Jacksonville to keep within the point spread in this tournament opener. The Dolphins finished as the best team in the conference in offensive rebounding, an area Kennesaw State continues to struggle.
Center Stephon Payne III pulled 16 boards in two games against the Owls, so look for the put-back points in the paint to be the difference.
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ASUN Tournament: Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast
By Ky McKeon
Queens and Florida Gulf Coast kick off conference tournament season in the opening round of the ASUN bracket.
Incredibly, these two squads faced off in last year’s opening round as well, with Queens capturing its first D-I postseason win.
Both squads have dealt with a myriad of injuries this season, and FGCU has certainly fallen well short of lofty expectations. Conference tournaments can be a reset button for underperforming squads and galvanize them to reach their true potential.
Despite still not having two of its best players, FGCU has the talent to make a run in the ASUN Tournament.
Queens has missed its best big man all season and was missing starting guard Kalib Mathews last game. However, this is essentially the Royals’ NCAA Tournament, as they are in a transition period after moving up from Division II.
Both regular-season matchups for these two squads were close, uptempo affairs with each picking up a win on their home floor.
FGCU was far healthier in Game 2, and it showed with a nine-point victory.
The Eagles have a distinct advantage in the post tonight with Keeshawn Kellman and Zach Anderson. Queens has struggled to guard anything this year, but it’s been especially weak in the paint. The Royals rank 351st in 2-point percentage allowed, per KenPom, and 298th in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim, per Hoop-Math.
FGCU needs to stop transition looks and keep Queens from finding easy looks from deep. Queens boasts a run-and-gun style offense that relies on open floor opportunities and the 3-point line. Unfortunately for the Eagles, FGCU has struggled to defend both this season, and Queens scored easily in transition in both previous contests.
Neither team can effectively stop the other, and given we expect at least 70 possessions, the over seems to be the best play. Both previous matchups went over the total, and both were high-possession and high-efficiency affairs.
