A battle for first place in the Big East and No. 5 Kansas hitting the road to take on Oklahoma State spotlights Tuesday's college basketball schedule, but our staff has six other spots for you to target as part of their best bets.
Dive in below to get the top college basketball odds, best bets and picks for Michigan vs. Wisconsin and more.
Tuesday's 6 College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Notre Dame vs. Duke
Tuesday, Feb. 14 7 p.m. ET ESPN |
Duke -11.5  |
Duke returns home to Cameron Indoor after losing back-to-back road games last week to Miami (FL) and Virginia — two of the ACC’s better teams.
The Blue Devils will now return home — where they are a perfect 12-0 on the year — to face a Notre Dame team that has won just two times in conference play.
A lot of the Irish's struggles can be attributed to their dependence on the 3-pointer. Notre Dame scores 38.7% of its points from the 3-point line (14th-highest rate in the country) and takes 43.1% of its field goals from beyond the arc.
The Irish now match up against a Duke team that has defended the perimeter at an elite level. The Blue Devils use their average height of 6-foot-6 to stretch their defense, and only 34.7% of their opponents' attempt come from 3-point range.
Not only will Notre Dame struggle from long distance, but it will also fail to produce on the glass and from the free-throw line, as it ranks outside the top 350 in both offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempts.
These rankings will not see any progression against a Duke team that ranks 77th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage allowed and 15th in free-throw attempts allowed per game.
Overall, this is a great spot to back Duke against a Notre Dame offense that has struggled to find consistent success all season.
Pick: Duke -11.5 (Play to -12.5) |
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Missouri vs. Auburn
Tuesday, Feb. 14 7 p.m. ET ESPN2 |
Auburn -6.5 |
By Stuckey
This is a great buy-low spot to back the home Tigers in "The Jungle," where they are just a much different team — in a positive way. Their erratic guards just play so much better in the friendly confines.
This also sets up as a sell-high spot on the road Tigers. This is Missouri's second straight away game following a miraculous win at Tennessee over the weekend.
From a matchup perspective, it’s all about the boards. Auburn should clean up on the offensive glass — where it ranks 22nd nationally — against a small Missouri team that allows the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the entire country.
Similarly, Auburn won’t have to worry about Mizzou killing it on the offensive glass, which is a problematic area for the Auburn defense.
Missouri wants to play fast, which I think will play right into the hands of Auburn in this spot.
I also think the home Tigers are due for a few more outside shots to start falling. But even if they aren’t, they should clean up the misses.
They also have very reliable guards at the free-throw line to close out a game, which is uber-important with a spread of 6.5.
Pick: Auburn -6.5 |
Nebraska vs. Rutgers
Tuesday, Feb. 14 8 p.m. ET Big Ten Network |
Nebraska +12.5  |
By D.J. James
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are missing multiple different pivotal players and still took down Penn State and Wisconsin over the last two weeks.
Nebraska is a scrappy defensive team with the 59th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the country, per KenPom.
The Huskers will take on Rutgers, which is coming off of a tough road loss to Illinois.
Rutgers has a similar formula, as it’s very defensive heavy. The Scarlet Knights have the second-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but they rank 132nd on offense. Nebraska ranks 179th.
In addition, the Cornhuskers run at the 232nd-ranked Adjusted Tempo while the Scarlet Knights rank 240th.
Rutgers does have some holes. For instance, per ShotQuality, it ranks 259th in catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per possession on defense.
This is literally the most efficient play the Cornhuskers run: a catch-and-shoot 3 to Keisei Tominaga. Jamarques Lawrence can also knock down the 3 and has seen an uptick in playing time with the injury to Emmanuel Bandoumel. Look for these two to perform well on the road at Rutgers.
Both of these teams also rely heavily on 2-point basketball otherwise. This is not a recipe for a wide point differential at the end of the game.
One area of concern may be the post for Nebraska, as Rutgers has a clear rebounding edge. But Derrick Walker played well against Wisconsin. As long as he is not in foul trouble, he is a great defensive matchup against Clifford Omoruyi.
This game should stay within 10.
Pick: Nebraska +12.5 (Play to +10) |
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Tuesday, Feb. 14 9 p.m. ET ESPNU |
Under 141.5 |
Oklahoma did shoot the ball very poorly vs. Kansas — going 4-of-17 from beyond the arc — but it also only shot 41% from inside the arc.
That’s a big problem against Kansas State because the Wildcats are an elite 3-point defense, allowing just 27.4% in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma is last in conference play in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, free-throw rate and turnover percentage, which are all areas where Kansas State struggles defensively.
Oklahoma loves to run a ton of isolation sets and it’s a high frequency cutting team, as well. Kansas State is top-65 in PPP allowed on both of those sets defensively, so I have a hard time seeing how the Sooners are going to effectively run their offense.
Kansas State is shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, but the reality is most of its field goal attempts come from inside the arc.
The Wildcats are the fourth-highest frequency team in terms of shot attempts at the rim, but they are only shooting 58.9% on those shots, which is 216th in the country, per Hoop-Math.
Kansas State is also the highest frequency cutting team in the entire country, but it’s 130th in PPP on those cuts. Oklahoma is only allowing 54.7% on shot attempts at the rim, and it’s also top-90 at PPP allowed off of cuts.
Kansas State is going to want to push the pace — considering it owns the fastest tempo in the Big 12 — but Oklahoma will want to slow it down, as it’s 265th in the nation in Adjusted Tempo.
So, with both defenses having good matchups, I like the value on under 141.5.
Pick: Under 141.5 (Play to 138) |
Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Tuesday, Feb. 14 9 p.m. ET ESPN2 |
Wisconsin -1 |
This is a big one for two middle-of-the-pack teams in the Big Ten. Both squads sit squarely on the bubble and are currently on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament picture.
I give the edge to the Badgers at home for a couple of different reasons.
Wisconsin’s compact, pack-line defensive style will force Michigan to beat it from the outside. Michigan has struggled to shoot the 3-ball on the road, and Jett Howard is really the only Wolverine who can make contested shots from deep.
Steven Crowl should be able to contain Hunter Dickinson on the block, and as long as Wisconsin doesn’t leave Joey Baker wide open beyond the arc, he is relatively limited.
On the other end of the floor, the Badgers continue to struggle to score it, but Tyler Wahl should have a favorable matchup in this one.
Wahl is the Badgers’ best option to get a basket, but Chucky Hepburn has shot it much better within the friendly confines of the Kohl Center.
This will very likely be a slow-paced, lower-scoring affair, but with such a tight spread, I believe the value is on Wisconsin to find a way to secure the victory at home.
Pick: Wisconsin -1 (Play to -2) |
Boston College vs. Pitt
Tuesday, Feb. 14 9 p.m. ET ACC Network |
Pitt -9.5  |
Riding a five-game win streak, Pittsburgh (18-7, 11-3) returns home to host Boston College (12-14, 6-9) for a 9 p.m. ET tip at the Petersen Events Center.
The Panthers are currently tied for first place in the ACC with Virginia and will look to separate themselves with a victory this evening.
The Jeff Capel-led Panthers have quietly been one of the better turnaround stories this season. After going 11-21 last year, Pitt has won 17 of its last 21 games and ranks 15th in the nation with eight Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins.
The Panthers feature one of the most experienced backcourts in the nation, with a quartet of guards who have a combined 541 games of experience.
The Panthers' backcourt is anchored by fifth-year Jamarius Burton. Burton is an ACC Player of the Year candidate and averages 16.0 points per game on 50.7% shooting.
The Pitt offensive attack draws a favorable matchup against a Boston College defense that ranks just 237th in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Where the 45th-ranked Pitt offense (AdjO) will be able to separate itself from Boston College is beyond the arc. The Panthers lead the ACC with 9.40 treys per game, whereas the Eagles rank 335th in the nation in 3-point defense, giving up triples on 37.5% of attempts.
On the technical side, Pitt is the best team in the nation against the spread, covering in 75% of contests with an 18-6-1 ATS record.
It hosts a Boston College team that has not been a bettor’s friend this season, cashing tickets against the spread just 42.3% of the time (11-15 record).
For the lovers out there, this is the Panthers' 31st Valentine’s Day game. The Panthers are 19-11 all-time on the most romantic day of the year.
Look for Pitt's backcourt prowess from beyond the arc to be the differentiator in this contest.
Additionally, Pitt is one of the best-coached teams in the nation and should be able to take advantage of the late home tip.
I’m projecting Pitt as 12.5-point favorites and recommend laying the chalk at 10.5 or better.
Pick: Pitt -9.5 (Play to -10.5) |
