Tuesday night in college basketball is flat out loaded. Not only are 12 ranked teams in action, but we have four top-25 matchups, including:
- Baylor vs. Kansas State (below)
- Tennessee vs. Texas A&M (below)
- Marquette vs. Creighton
- Iowa State vs. Texas
With that in mind, our staff has seven best bets for Tuesday's slate, so dive in now to get the top college basketball odds and picks.
Tuesday's 7 College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Villanova vs. Xavier
Tuesday, Feb. 21 6:30 p.m. ET FS1 |
Villanova +6  |
Justin Moore’s return continues to lift Villanova, especially after he has been able to knock off some rust in his first couple games back.
The Wildcats shot the ball poorly on Saturday at Providence, ultimately falling short on the road. Before that, however, Nova won three in a row and was starting to see some more effective overall offense.
Xavier has had a terrific year to date, but the loss of Zach Freemantle weakens the Musketeers on the interior.
For as good as Xavier has been offensively all season, this is still a team that ranks outside the top 80 in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings.
Moore and the rest of Nova’s guards should be able to penetrate the gaps and get to the rim, also leaving the opportunity to kick out to open shooters.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Villanova went for 80 and came up just short at home.
Give me the Wildcats to have another efficient night with the ball, allowing them to hang inside the number as a six-point road underdog.
Pick: Villanova +6 (Play to +4.5) |
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Georgia Tech vs. Pitt
Tuesday, Feb. 21 7 p.m. ET ACC Network |
Pitt -11.5  |
Pittsburgh will play host to Georgia Tech on Tuesday night in a game it will use as an opportunity to bounce back from a 79-72 loss to Virginia Tech on Saturday.
The Panthers have been great at home, losing only three of their 15 games.
On the other side, Georgia Tech has been abysmal on the road, winning just one of its nine total road contests. This lone road win came all the way back on Nov. 12 against Georgia State. The Panthers won that game by just two points.
Even given this poor record on the road, the Yellow Jackets have been keeping things respectable recently. Georgia Tech has covered its last four contests against D-I opponents, including an outright win over Virginia Tech as 8.5-point underdogs.
I expect this progression to come back down to earth against a Pittsburgh team still looking to bolster its postseason resume.
In particular, this is a great matchup for the Panthers on the defensive end. Georgia Tech has struggled to find consistent offense, ranking outside the top 250 in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage.
As a result, the Panthers are averaging just 66.7 points per-game (279th nationally).
When the Yellow Jackets do find success on offense, it comes on the interior. They score 53.6% of their points from 2-point range, the 90th-highest rate in the country.
However, Pitt has excelled at preventing penetration, allowing just 49.2% of opponents' points to come from 2-point range.
Additionally, Pittsburgh ranks 25th nationally in near-proximity field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 52.9% on layups, dunks and tip-ins.
On the other end, Pittsburgh’s offense will be primed to bounce back through its play on the offensive glass. The Panthers are grabbing offensive rebounds at a 30.7% clip, which should continue against a Georgia Tech defense that gives opponents a second chance on 30.6% of their shot attempts.
Given these advantages, I will gladly lay the points with a motivated Pittsburgh team in a bounce-back spot on its home floor.
Pick: Pitt -11.5 (Play to -12.5) |
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Tuesday, Feb. 21 7 p.m. ET ESPN |
Tennessee +1.5  |
By D.J. James
Tennessee has had a rough go of it in SEC play lately.
The Volunteers have dropped four of their last six in conference play, including losses to Florida, Vanderbilt and Missouri. They did, however, beat Alabama, which is playing some of the best basketball in the country.
The Vols should have a bounce-back performance against the Texas A&M Aggies on Tuesday.
For one, the Aggies rank 350th in 3-point attempt rate on defense at 45.3%. They also only take 3s 34.4% of the time themselves, so this could be an issue. That’s because the Volunteers own nearly a 40% 3-point attempt rate on offense.
Tyreke Key and Santiago Vescovi (34%+) are much more efficient from 3 than Zakai Zeigler, so these would be optimal 3-point options.
Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips are questionable for this game, so they could also give a small boost to the Vols if they play.
Both of these teams have a tendency to foul, and since the Aggies are at home and get to the line at the third-highest in the country, they will probably win the free-throw battle.
However, they don’t have much else to build off of offensively. This team ranks 92nd in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality.
Texas A&M ranks fourth in rebounding and usually has a clear advantage on the boards, but that won’t be the case against a Tennessee team that ranks fifth.
Since all of these factors look to be much closer than expected, the Vols should win a tight one and get an added bonus if James and Phillips are in the lineup.
Pick: Tennessee +1.5 (Play to PK) |
Tennessee +1.5
By Stuckey
The hottest and coldest ATS teams in the SEC square off in College Station tonight, which I believe has created value on the Vols in a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
And this is coming from a Vols denier.
The Aggies thrive in a few areas, with its biggest strength being on the offensive glass. However, Tennessee can match them in that department while living on the offensive glass on the other end.
I also I think it's just a good overall matchup schematically for the Tennessee offense.
A&M has been good, but has certainly benefited from the easiest SEC schedule to date in a very overrated league. Don’t forget how much this team struggled in the non-conference.
Tennessee comes into this one as the more desperate team and could even get two important healthy pieces back in James and Phillips.
Ultimately, the Vols can match the Aggies' physicality here in a game it can grind out for a tough road victory.
Pick: Tennessee +1.5 |
Baylor vs. Kansas State
Tuesday, Feb. 21 7 p.m. ET ESPN2 |
Baylor -1.5 |
Many who simply glanced at the final score of Baylor’s most recent loss to Kansas likely missed a lot of context surrounding that defeat.
The Bears’ elite backcourt — featuring the trio of LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George — hit a number of tough shots that helped Baylor to a 13-point halftime lead.
Kansas simply brought a buzzsaw out of the locker room at halftime.
A healthy Cryer provides Baylor a ton of offensive firepower. And following a gruesome knee injury and rehab process, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is back on the court and contributing to help Baylor’s rebounding and defensive efforts.
The Bears are as healthy as they’ve been the entire year. When fully equipped, Baylor presents too many weapons for most opponents to guard.
Kansas State is much improved, leading to a home environment that presents a more formidable challenge for visitors than in recent years. However, Markquis Nowell won’t be a bother to the skilled guards of Baylor.
Having come directly from Scott Drew’s staff in Waco, Jerome Tang’s roster and playing style is built very similarly to Drew’s at Baylor. Tang’s approach and game plan tonight is not likely to surprise Drew and his team.
I believe Baylor is simply a more talented and experienced version of the Wildcats, which will lead to a Bears victory on the road in Manhattan.
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
Tuesday, Feb. 21 9 p.m. ET ESPN2 |
Oklahoma -2.5 |
Life in the Big 12 is brutal, especially for the teams at the bottom. The league looks poised to send eight of its 10 teams to the Big Dance, with Texas Tech and Oklahoma as the stragglers left behind.
Thanks to an impressive three-game winning streak, however, the Red Raiders are starting to receive a little bit of consideration from bracketologists.
That leaves Oklahoma in last place, the lone team in the conference with little postseason motivation. Yet, the Sooners have far from punted on the season.
Porter Moser has his squad playing some of its best basketball late in the season. The Sooners took Texas to overtime in Austin and beat Kansas State by double digits last week.
For Oklahoma, this is a game it’s had circled on its calendar. By any metric, these are the two “worst” teams in the Big 12. Two top-60 KenPom teams doesn’t look or feel like a battle to avoid last place, but that’s reality in college basketball’s best conference.
All season, this has clearly been the Sooners' most likely Big 12 win. They won’t let that chance pass at home in Norman after they beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock earlier this year.
Pick: Oklahoma -2.5 |
Fresno State vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Feb. 21 9 p.m. ET Altitude Sports |
Fresno State +2.5  |
I like Air Force as much as the next guy, but I think the Falcons are reaching their market’s peak.
After picking up wins over New Mexico and Wyoming in the past week, Air Force is due for a letdown, especially considering ShotQuality graded both wins as analytical losses.
Meanwhile, Fresno State enters Tuesday on a three-game skid. But all three games were graded as analytical wins, and the Bulldogs are due to pull out a close victory after losing back-to-back one-possession games.
The on-court matchup isn’t ideal, as Air Force likes to launch 3s while Fresno State lets opponents shoot.
However, there are reasons to be optimistic.
Fresno State boasts one of the more underrated defenses in the Mountain West, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and second in half-court PPP allowed, per ShotQuality.
In addition, the Bulldogs excel against ball-screen, off-screen and cutting sets, which is the bread and butter of Air Force’s Princeton-motion attack.
As such, Fresno State limited Air Force to just 51 points in the meeting earlier this season. While Fresno State lost by three, Air Force got lucky in the 3-point department, shooting 9-of-25 from deep to the Bulldogs’ 2-of-15.
ShotQuality graded that game as a small analytical win for Fresno State.
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Image Credit: ShotQuality
And Fresno State should be healthier in this matchup, as Isaiah Hill and Jemarl Baker missed the first meeting. That’s a big deal considering those are the Bulldogs’ two highest-usage players.
And finally, there’s no reason to fear Air Force’s strong home-court advantage, as Fresno State has won five straight games in Colorado Springs. The Bulldogs can play at altitude.
Most projection systems I trust make this game a true pick’em, so there’s value in the current number.
But more importantly, I just think Fresno State finds some positive regression.
Pick: Fresno State +2.5 (Play to +0.5) |
