Air Force vs Colorado State Odds, Pick
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -112 | 134 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Colorado St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -108 | 134 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Colorado State and Air Force will battle in an in-state conference showdown at the rowdy Moby Arena in Fort Collins, Colorado, on Tuesday. The Rams need to get on track after losing back-to-back games for the first time this season.
Air Force Falcons
Winning in the transfer portal era isn't easy at a military academy. Air Force is dealing with the ramifications of that right now, entering this game with a 7-8 record as losers of six straight. Eventually, one of these games will fall in the Falcons' favor, as four of the six losses came by five points or less.
Air Force's success hinges on perimeter shooting, with the Falcons attempting triples on 44% of their field goals. Coach Joe Scott, a former Princeton player and coach, plays at a slow tempo, showing many Princeton-esque elements — constant moving, back cuts and passing. Air Force can compete in most conference games if the outside shots fall, but winning becomes extremely difficult on an off-shooting night.
Air Force's main source of offense comes from the trio of Ethan Taylor, Rytis Petraitis and Beau Becker. Petraitis is the point forward in the Princeton scheme, averaging 15 points and 3.3 assists per contest. The best overall scorer is Taylor, a 6-foot-5 junior averaging 17 points on 40% shooting from downtown. Keep an eye on Taylor in this one since his scoring capabilities can keep Air Force in striking distance.
Moreover, the Falcons are pretty solid on the defensive end, ranking 184th in defensive efficiency. You'd expect a far worse number for the worst team in the stacked Mountain West conference, but sitting middle of the pack nationally isn't bad.
Opposing teams shoot a blistering 36% from downtown against the Falcons defense. Air Force forces turnovers on 19% of defensive possessions, which is the strength of the Falcons' defense. If Colorado State plays sloppy offense like it did against Boise State, it could be a problem the Rams.
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Colorado State Rams
The Rams are the real Mountain West surprise after an awful 2022-23 season. Perhaps we should've seen it coming with Isaiah Stevens back in the mix as one of the best point guards in America.
I'm expecting a much better game from Stevens after his worst game of the year in the loss against Boise State. Stevens scored 15 points on 6-of-12 shooting but turned the ball over six times. That's very unlike Stevens, who rarely turns the ball over.
The Rams shot only 5-of-20 from deep against the Broncos' dominant defensive unit. That typically won't result in many wins based on the five-out, spread offense Colorado State plays.
Some might buy into the idea that it's some offensive regression. I don't think that's the case, though. I'm still a major believer in Colorado State's offense, as it ranks 16th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. As long as Stevens is running the offense, I have no reason to doubt the Rams' legitimacy.
Colorado State still ranks sixth nationally in effective field goal percentage, turns the ball over only 15% of the time and shoots 36% from deep. That's an ideal formula for maintaining an elite offense.
Wing starter Nique Clifford is the most underrated player in Colorado State's offense. As a true 3-and-D player, Clifford provides immense value as a lockdown defender who shoots 53% from downtown. He doesn't get the shine Stevens or Patrick Cartier does, but he's a massively important player for coach Niko Medved.
Air Force vs. Colorado State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although the Rams have a case as the Mountain West's best team, they typically play close games. One of the reasons for that is the Rams' slow pace, and possessions will come at a premium in this one between two really slow-paced teams.
I could see Air Force hanging in the 10- to 12-point range for most of the game if just enough 3-point shots go down.
