Arizona Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
It's time to take a look at the Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks odds and make a betting prediction in this Pac-12 NCAAB betting preview.
The Arizona Wildcats, fresh off the heels of heartbreak against Oregon State, face a pivotal Pac-12 matchup against the Oregon Ducks. As crazy as it sounds, Arizona needs a win over Oregon to keep pace for first place.
The Wildcats sit at 5-3 in league play, currently in a three-way tie with Stanford and Arizona State for third place.
Let's break down this Pac-12 showdown in our Arizona vs. Oregon preview and prediction.
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats have looked surprisingly mediocre in conference road games. Pullman, Corvallis and Palo Alto certainly don't have the same reputation as Durham, and Arizona comfortably beat Duke at Cameron Indoor earlier this season.
So what went wrong in Arizona's three losses to Washington State, Oregon State and Stanford? The Wildcats surrendered 102 points and 16 3s against the Cardinal. You don't win games when teams shoot over 50% from 3 with 16 makes. The next two are more perplexing. Those losses mostly stem from defensive lapses, with the Wildcats allowing 1.21 points per possession against the Beavers and 1.06 against the Cougars.
Arizona has good enough individual defenders — like Keshad Johnson, Pelle Larsson and Kylan Boswell — to figure things out on that end. It just comes down to consistency. The more pressing concern is Arizona's limited ceiling when Boswell struggles.
Boswell, a standout sophomore guard, is 2-of-19 from the field with five points in Arizona's three Pac-12 defeats. The Wildcats can't withstand their point guard entirely disappearing in big conference road games. Whether it's playing Jaden Bradley more or Boswell starting to make shots, Arizona's point guard situation is officially a concern.
Arizona is dominant on the glass. It has plenty of size, with big man Oumar Ballo and even Caleb Love and Larsson rebounding well for their positions. The Cats rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and second in defensive rebounding percentage. You better make the most of the first shot since you probably won't get another one.
Still, the metrics adore the Wildcats, as KenPom places them fifth in AdjEm. Their offensive and defensive metrics stand strong, ranking eighth in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. That lends some credence to some positive regression heading in Arizona's direction.
Will it come in Eugene, though?
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Oregon Ducks
Now fully healthy, Oregon's potential is on full display. N'Faly Dante is dominant in the post, Jermaine Couisnard sets the tone and Jackson Shelstad is a stone-cold killer scorer.
Couisnard is enjoying a career-best year in his super senior season, averaging 14.5 points and shooting 39.5% from 3. Shelstad is the perfect fire to Couisnard's lightning. The freshman scored fewer than 10 points in the past three games, but can drop 20-plus at any time.
The Ducks' offense shines in two areas: limiting turnovers (ranking 44th in turnover percentage) and perimeter shooting (37.6% from 3.) I didn't think Oregon would shoot the ball well this year, so shooting nearly 38% from 3 is a pleasant surprise.
My biggest concern for Oregon in this matchup is defending the dynamic scoring Love from Arizona. We know Love could drop 30 in one game and go 6-of-25 shooting in the next game — just look at his performance against Duke in the Final Four two years ago compared to the title game against Kansas.
Oregon isn't a good defensive team in general, ranking 85th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks allowed at least 80 points in last week's road losses against Utah and Colorado — two worse offensive teams than Arizona.
The problem? Oregon regularly struggles against guards who create shots. Utah's Deivon Smith scored 24 points, Colorado's KJ Simpson scored 22, Alabama's Mark Sears scored 27 and Syracuse's Judah Mintz scored 18. All of those happened in Oregon losses. The Ducks must limit Love or hope it's one of his off nights.
Arizona vs. Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
Arizona is truly turning into a pumpkin in road games. I do not think it's a long-term trend, but it's not something I can ignore, either. The Wildcats lost three games against worse teams in road games, and the Ducks are strong in Eugene.
Plus, Oregon matches up pretty well position for position against Arizona. I'm riding the Ducks all the way.
Pick: Oregon +3.5 (Play to +2)
