Auburn vs Mississippi State Odds, Pick
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Auburn lost on the road at Alabama on Wednesday to fall into a three-way tie in the loss column at the top of the SEC standings. Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn all have one loss at this point in the conference standings and all three find themselves in the top 10 nationally in most of the efficiency metrics rankings.
The Volunteers already took a loss on the road at Mississippi State on Jan. 10 as a short road favorite and now the Bulldogs have a chance to pick off another top-10 opponent Saturday in Starkville as a short home underdog.
The Tigers have played four true road games all season and have won just two of them. Auburn took care of business in the league at Arkansas and Vanderbilt, but losses at Appalachian State and Alabama show that there's still questions about Auburn in true road games.
The Tigers haven't faced a single defense near the quality of Chris Jans' Bulldogs, and there's also some potential regression looming for Auburn's defense.
Auburn Tigers
The biggest key to slowing down an occasionally dysfunctional Mississippi State offense is to prevent second-chance opportunities. Bruce Pearl's squad is constantly chasing turnovers and transition opportunities, which leaves them vulnerable on the defensive glass. Mississippi State is sure to have turnover issues against the elite Auburn ball pressure, but the Bulldogs rank 34th in offensive rebounding rate and 15th in potential points off second-chance scoring opportunities.
The Auburn defense has given up a ton of second-chance opportunities all year and has been a bit fortunate to not get punished more for its weakness on the defensive glass. The Tigers have allowed second-chance looks at a national average rate, which is alarming for a team power rated inside the top five nationally. Opponents are also shooting below 30% from beyond the arc against the Tigers, despite Auburn's ranking 100th in open 3 rate.
When you chase turnovers as aggressively as the Tigers do, you will inevitably leave shooters open. Mississippi State isn't a good 3-point shooting team on paper, but the failure of every team to make open 3s against Auburn has inflated its defensive rating and market perception by a couple points.
Auburn has played by the far the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the SEC thus far. The Tigers may rank first in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate forced, but I still have questions about the consistency of their guard play as we get deeper into SEC player and they continue playing tougher opponents.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs' defense has struggled since Tolu Smith returned to the lineup. The center has the highest usage rate by possession percentage in the entire SEC, used on 34% of possessions thus far. Smith hasn't been much of a factor defensively at the rim, as Mississippi State has allowed opponents to shoot 56% from inside the arc in the last five games. Smith isn't blocking or impacting as many shots as he usually does, and improved play from him on the defensive end would go a long way toward improving the Bulldogs' rim defense.
Given everything Jans has shown as a defensive coach in his two years in Starkville — and New Mexico State before that — the Bulldogs defense is likely to improve from its 12th ranking in SEC 2-point field goal defense since conference play began. Smith had a +1.56 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating last season, per EvanMiya.com. Smith grades out as just an average defender this year, so I'd expect him to trend up as he gets more minutes and time on court.
The strength of Auburn offensively is its wing and interior offensive talent, and Mississippi State's two best defenders are lengthy and rangy wing defenders. By DBPR, Cameron Matthews and D.J. Jeffries are two of the five best defenders in the entire conference. Smith and Johni Broome will be an elite head-to-head matchup, and Smith is one of the few centers in the SEC who can match Broome on the interior.
Auburn takes more 3s than it should given the Tigers are a very average jump-shooting team and don't generate an above-average number of open 3s. If the Tigers want to be efficient, they'll be going into the strength of the Bulldogs' defense at the rim.
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a classic spot to back an overvalued short road favorite in conference play. Auburn reached the top of the market as a top-five team, and now the team is overvalued because of a weak conference schedule. The Tigers haven't faced a defense as good as Jans' group all year and the Bulldogs are live to pull the upset Saturday.
I'd bet Mississippi State at +1 or better.
Pick: Mississippi State +1 or better
