Bellarmine vs BYU Odds, Pick
| Bellarmine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
We head to Provo, Utah, where the Marriott Center has been one of the most electric atmospheres in college basketball to begin the year. The BYU Cougars are primed to remain red hot as they host the Bellarmine Knights.
Mark Pope's Cougars have been one of the best stories of the college basketball season considering this is their first season as members of the Big 12. BYU has been nearly flawless, and suddenly this team is in the mix to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
But has the market overrated the Cougars for this matchup?
Bellarmine Knights
I'll get the obvious out of the way and say the Knights have zero chance to win this game.
But in this case, it's all about whether or not Bellarmine can cover the spread.
Digging into the metrics, the Knights have a tall task at hand to keep this game competitive. They rank 268th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 212th in defensive efficiency.
The Cougars are top 20 in both of those categories, so stating this is a mismatch is an understatement. Bellarmine is also 324th in FG%, and it has been a notoriously poor 3-point shooting team this season.
Surprisingly, the Knights are an elite free-throw shooting team. They're shooting 81% as a team, which is third best in the nation.
The issue is, they don't get to the line very often and the Cougars don't foul a ton either. This is going to be a difficult matchup for Bellarmine to generate offense.
I have legitimate concerns about the Knights' height disadvantage, and this defense is going to get gashed all evening long. I realize they haven't had the easiest schedule, but there's nothing in the metrics to suggest the Knights are going to have success in this game.
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BYU Cougars
Guards Jaxson Robinson and Trevin Knell have been sensational for the Cougars this season. Robinson and Knell are shooting over 42% combined from deep, and are a big reason why their team has been a force to be reckoned with.
There are very little flaws with this group, as they are dominant in the majority of defensive and offensive categories.
Whether they decide to attack the Knights from the inside or outside, the Cougars should put on an offensive clinic.
BYU takes a ton of threes, and rank sixth in the nation in assists per field goals attempted. The way they spread the basketball around is a huge reason they've been able to get so many open looks.
The depth on this team is admirable, and they should have no issues with fatigue. Simply put, this should be an absolute beatdown.
Bellarmine vs. BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
I hate laying large numbers in college basketball, but I think there's no other way to attack this game than backing the Cougars.
KenPom makes this game BYU -25, and we are currently looking at a bunch of -26.5's out there in the market. This to me tells me that the market is trying to catch up as quickly as possible with this red-hot Cougars team.
BYU shot 6-21 from deep in its last game against Georgia State, so I think this is a great opportunity to bounce back. Even if they're cold from the outside, the Cougars should feast inside against this Knights team that is 294th in defensive 2PT%.
We did get burned late with Gonzaga the other night in a blowout, but I don't think this will be the case here. This game should be Cougars all the way, and I won't be surprised to see this number continue to steam.
