Boise State vs Saint Mary's Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
Let's head out to Idaho Falls, where the Boise State Broncos will host the Saint Mary's Gaels. The Gaels have been a tough team to crack at the beginning of the season as they have yet to establish any consistency.
The same could be said for the Broncos, who are 3-3 and looking to trend in the right direction. It's early in the year, but both of these teams had NCAA tournament aspirations to begin the season.
Let's not waste anymore time and dig right into my pick for Boise State vs. Saint Mary's.
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos' offense has been dreadful to start the season. They're 111th in Adjusted Efficiency, but that's a bit misleading.
This offense lacks a true identity and has been struggling from seemingly everywhere.
Boise State is shooting 46% from the field and 30% from 3. The Broncos have also been horrendous on the glass, with a 23% offensive rebound rate.
The defense, which ranks 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, is definitely the anchor of this team.
Boise State has been able to limit offensive rebounds, but does need to improve inside, as opponents are shooting 52% from inside the arc.
I know they're at home, but I think the Broncos could be in trouble, as this isn't a good matchup for their offense.
Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels have better talent and should have a defensive edge in this matchup, but their offense has let them down to begin the year — they're 289th in FG%.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if that quickly gets turned around. Sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney has carried this team offensively and is shooting 40% from beyond the arc.
As Mahaney goes, so does the rest of the offense. The Broncos' defense has been pretty bad, so this could be a nice get-right spot for the Gaels.
I'm concerned about the Gaels' ability to make free throws, which could be a factor if this is a close game. They're shooting 62% as a team, but that could just be a case of early-season variance.
Despite shooting 31% from 3, this is a matchup in which Saint Mary's should get some open looks from beyond the arc. The Broncos are in the middle of the pack in terms of opponent 3PT%.
The Gaels' defense has no excuse to falter in this spot, as Saint Mary's is 40th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and is facing a Boise State side that's 292nd in FG%.
Normally, the Broncos' height could be a cause for concern. Luckily, the Gaels are the eighth-tallest team in the nation, so Boise's typical height advantage won't be a factor in this game.
Boise State vs. Saint Mary's
Betting Pick & Prediction
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I believe we're getting some value on the Gaels, as there's no reason to believe the Broncos will break out of their offensive funk in this game.
The Gaels are way too ferocious on the defensive end, and this looks like a good get-right spot.
Mahaney could easily drop 35 if he gets hot from 3, and I wouldn't blink an eye.
I have way more faith in the Gaels' guards to get clicking offensively than I do the Broncos. The Broncos could eventually get going, but this seems like it'll be a long night.
