Cal vs Ole Miss Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
The Hall of Fame Series in San Antonio features the unbeaten Ole Miss Rebels and the rising California Golden Bears.
On the surface, it probably feels like a total mismatch based on Cal's unimpressive start and Ole Miss' current record, but we'll see a fairly entertaining contest.
Cal Golden Bears
I would say California is better than its 3-6 record indicates. The Golden Bears have some ugly losses on their resume — against Montana State, UTEP and Pacific. On the flip side, Cal lost overtime games to Butler and San Diego State, and three of its losses came by nine combined points.
Cal isn't getting destroyed; it's just not getting enough defensive stops in key moments. Whether it's a big rebound or having a good late-game possession, Cal comes up short regularly.
Jaylon Tyson and Fardaws Aimaq — a pair of Texas Tech imports — have vastly improved the talent base in Berkeley. Tyson's shot-creation prowess and natural skill help him average 19.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Aimaq is impactful without the ball as an elite rebounder and reliable rim-protecting threat.
The rim-protection could pay dividends against Ole Miss' dribble-drive attack.
The offense needs more than Tyson scoring self-created baskets and Aimaq cleaning up misses, though. Mark Madsen needs transfer guards Jalen Cone and Keonte Kennedy to add some scoring pop.
Cone is the better scorer of the two (averaged over 16 points per game at Northern Arizona) and is a better shooter than his 34% indicates.
While defense is the main concern, Cal's offense gives the ball away too often. If it turned the ball over less (currently 19.7% turnover percentage), it could lead to defensive improvements, simply from getting set instead of running in transition.
Cal works better in the half-court instead of in a marathon.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is nationally ranked and unbeaten, but the metrics still have reservations about the Rebels.
The reason for the metrics questioning Ole Miss' legitimacy is its propensity to win close games. The "luck" factor sometimes plays a role; others just don't have enough firepower to blow teams out.
That's where I see Ole Miss — less lucky, but it just doesn't have the scoring to blow teams out.
Allen Flanigan is unquestionably Ole Miss' best offensive player, averaging over 18 points per contest. The 6-foot-6 senior has made countless clutch plays this year, and will look to add a few more notable plays to his highlight reel on Saturday.
Jaylen Murray is arguably Ole Miss' most important offensive piece, despite Flanigan being the best. Murray is the Rebels' lone true point guard. He's averaging 14.7 points and 4.3 assists per game, including 26 points in the win over Memphis.
The offense has more burst and gets more clean looks when Murray's quickness allows him to attract the defense and either score or create for others.
I'm not sure how Cal stops Murray. He's a total mismatch in this one for a questionable Cal defense.
Cal vs. Ole Miss
Betting Pick & Prediction
I expect Ole Miss to win the game without needing late-game heroics.
But laying five points feels too lofty when Ole Miss won five of its nine games by three or fewer points.
Cal's offense can keep it in the game while covering the number.
Pick: Cal +5
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