Dayton vs Cincinnati Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
In-state rivalries always have a bit of a different feel. The sense of pride one team gets from beating its heated rival almost gives off high school state championship vibes.
Here's Dayton vs Cincinnati odds and a pick for Saturday.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton's offense looks excellent, ranking 38th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and shoots the ball efficiently at 47% and 40% from deep. The offensive success runs through A10 preseason POY, DaRon Holmes II. The Goodyear, AZ native is averaging 16.3 points on significantly worse efficiency from last year — down from 59% to 51%. The natural rise in Holmes's three-point attempts does contribute to his inefficiency, but finishing better inside is important for him.
Due to Dayton's snail-like pace, it needs to make the most of each possession. The 357th ranking in adjusted tempo and 20% turnover rate isn't an ideal blueprint for offensive success. Just imagine how much better Dayton's offense would be if the turnovers dipped a bit.
Losing Malachi Smith on opening night seemed like the start of a downfall for the Flyers. Instead, Merrimack transfer Javon Bennett emerged as a reliable starting point guard. Bennett's the true unsung hero of the Flyers hot start to the season.
Thankfully for the Flyers, Cincinnati seldom forces turnovers. Something has to give in that department. Will Cincinnati become disruptive defensively, or will Dayton hold onto the ball better?
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats took their first loss last weekend in the Crosstown shootout against Xavier. Cincinnati followed up by letting Bryant hang around for 34 minutes until it exploded for a late 32-5 run. The final tally looks bigger than the game actually was, but Cincinnati could use the win as a springboard for future success.
The metrics absolutely love Cincinnati, ranking 26th in KenPom despite no notable wins. Again, it's another example of a high-major program scheduling softer in the non-conference, hoping to beef up the early-season metrics. Cincinnati's faced zero top-125 KenPom opponents besides Xavier, so all eight wins came against questionable competition.
Cincinnati wants to win with its frontcourt advantage over most teams. It starts offensive superstar Viktor Lakhin, who's averaging 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds, and shot-swatting extraordinaire, Aziz Bandaogo.
My concerns stem from Cincinnati's backcourt. I love the potential of Jizzle James, and Day Day Thomas shows occasional flashes at point guard, but James is still a freshman. Cincinnati's offense has a tendency to disappear for short spurts when the guards don't make plays.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Flyers need to hit perimeter shots and have done so in nine games. The contrasting tempos will play a factor, but I don't think the gap between these teams is more than one possession. I'm rolling with Dayton and taking the points against a questionable Cincinnati backcourt.
