Florida State vs Miami Odds, Pick
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
Last year, Miami and Florida State had one of the best conference games in college hoops. Matthew Cleveland hit the game-winner for the Noles, and now he's on the other side. That's college basketball for you! Never a dull moment.
Florida State Seminoles
Don't look now, but Florida State has won four straight games in ACC play, including wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
Florida State pushes the pace, but it does so in a different fashion than Miami. The Noles' offense is mediocre, ranking 132nd in Offensive Efficiency compared to a solid 65th on defense. Leonard Hamilton wants his team to force turnovers and get into transition. The Noles force turnovers 21% of the time, good for 31st nationally.
Additionally, the Noles' roster makeup fits the style of play perfectly. Some of Florida State's best teams under Hamilton had many players who could pressure defensively and push the tempo. Florida State's current roster features 11 players playing 10+ minutes per contest.
That's the polar opposite of Miami, which hopes not to dig deep into a lousy bench unit.
The issue with Florida State's roster? It lacks the top-end talent that Miami clearly has with Wooga Poplar, Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack.
Who's taking the big shots for Florida State in the big moments? Well, Jamir Watkins leads the team in scoring with 13.3 points per game and Darin Green Jr. is next with 11 points on 40% shooting from deep.
The team lacks a go-to option, though, and the lack of talent will show in the biggest moments in tough road environments.
Florida State's mixture of size and athleticism causes serious problems for opponents in transition. Florida State's offensive issues rise if the game occurs in the half court.
Miami Hurricanes
It was another wild week for the Miami Hurricanes, who fell short at home against Louisville before winning in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech.
Despite sitting at 12-4, the metrics don't love Miami for a few reasons.
First is Miami's defensive problems. The Canes rank 116th in Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom. That's really poor for a high-major team that made the Final Four a season ago, and for reference, Miami let a terrible Louisville team score 80 points in Coral Gables.
That's nothing new for Miami under Jim Larranaga, but on nights where the offense doesn't drop 80+, the defense needs some stops.
Pack isn't Miami's best player statically, but he's its most important. He's now the primary point guard and always makes the team better when his shots fall. Pack scored six against Louisville and 19 points against the Hokies on Saturday. The senior guard averages 13 points and shoots 44% from downtown.
Without a doubt, Pack is one of the sport's top perimeter shooting threats.
Pack leads the Canes' dominant offense, which ranks 30th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in effective field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point percentage. That's a strong trio of stats when it comes to winning college basketball games.
Moreover, Poplar, Kyshawn George and Cleveland all shoot over 42% from downtown. Including Pack, four of Miami's eight rotational pieces shoot significantly over 40% from deep. The Canes have mediocre depth, but there are no real weak spots from the players who play real minutes.
It's a real luxury for the Canes — one Florida State doesn't have.
Florida State vs. Miami
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's a total fade spot for Florida State, following four consecutive wins — three of which came at home.
The Noles have one true road victory this year, which came on Saturday against Notre Dame. We know Notre Dame isn't very good, and playing in Coral Gables is a totally different animal.
