Penn State vs Maryland Odds, Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
The Penn State Nittany Lions are struggling, as expected with the departure of their coach after the 2022-2023 season. They haven't been able to pull down boards consistently, and this has hurt them.
In addition, they haven't hit 3s, so their offense has taken a massive step back, even if they play at a quicker pace.
Their opponent on Wednesday will be the Maryland Terrapins on the road.
Maryland has gotten off to a rocky start, too. It has excelled defensively, but like Penn State, the Terps cannot hit 3s. However, the Terps can control the pace in this game, even if they have four losses already.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State plays at the 62nd-quickest tempo in the country, per KenPom. The Nittany Lions rank 43rd in seconds per possession on offense, but they rank 278th on defense at 17.8 seconds per possession.
As stated above, the Nittany Lions have been awful from deep. They're shooting only 29.4% while hoisting 3s 40.9% of the time. They do shoot 54.3% from inside the arc, but Maryland is holding opponents to 45% on 2s.
Adding on, Maryland also ranks third with a 24.1% 3-point attempt rate on defense. This means the Nittany Lions won't get many 3-point chances.
Lastly, the Terps hold opponents to the seventh-best Rim-and-3 Rate in the country, per Shot Quality, so Penn State will have its hands full.
Penn State can't rebound, either. It ranks 223rd offensively in rebounding and 22nd on defense. Maryland ranks 80th on offense and 275th on defense.
The Terps might be able to manufacture some second-chance points, however, easy rebounds might be at a minimum for both squads in this one.
Maryland Terrapins
The Terps also can't hit 3s. They don't shoot as many (39% clip), but they're only hitting 22.7% from downtown. This ranks 359th in college hoops, so they're near the bottom of the barrel.
This is one of their detriments and why they're losing so much early on this season.
Maryland ranks 293rd in passing, per Shot Quality. This means it's isolating too often on offense. Penn State ranks 297th in passing, so these offenses might both look ugly in this matchup.
One issue that could rear its ugly head in this one is free throws. Penn State ranks 94th in offensive free-throw rate and 124th defensively. Maryland ranks 22nd and 162nd, respectively.
Simply put, both teams foul a lot and are good at finding a way to the free-throw line. That said, the Terps are only shooting 67.7% from the strike, while Penn State is shooting 72.4%. Neither team hits their free throws as much as they should.
Finally, Maryland averages 17.2 seconds per possession offensively and 18 seconds per possession defensively. This amounts to an Adjusted Tempo ranked 268th on KenPom.
This should be the style of play for both squads.
Penn State vs. Maryland
Betting Pick & Prediction
Penn State launches too many 3s, and neither of these offenses have found a rhythm. Neither team passes much or effectively, and neither will necessarily get boards often.
This should lead to many trips down the court without a bucket for both Penn State and Maryland.
Yes, they can get to the free-throw line, but free throws can't be the only source of offense to hit an over.
Take the under in this game from 141 to 138.
Pick: Under 141 (Play to 138)
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