Tulane vs SMU Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | +333 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
The AAC is one of the more interesting conferences in college basketball. Four teams rank inside the top 70 of KenPom, and the second-highest-rated team may surprise you.
The SMU Mustangs are 43rd in KenPom, only 16 spots behind first-place FAU. The Mustangs will host the dangerous Tulane Green Wave on Thursday night.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane is the most boom-or-bust team in the American. It can beat anybody, as it did against Memphis and nearly did against FAU. On the flip side, it also lost to UTSA and Charlotte (at home). There's no real middle ground for Tulane. Either it's an awesome team, or one randomly loses a game it shouldn't.
If you're a fan of the Green Wave, I'd be concerned about the rebounding. SMU is one of the sport's top offensive-rebounding teams, and Tulane frequently gets hammered on the defensive glass. That's a major cause for concern for an already questionable Tulane defense (210th in defensive efficiency).
All five Green Wave starters average double-digit points, though Kevin Cross' 17.5 points per game leads the group. Cross operates as the point forward in Ron Hunter's scheme and also averages 7.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Cross' playmaking helps get shooters like Jaylen Forbes, Sion James and Kolby King clean looks from deep. All three shoot better than 35% from 3.
The key for Tulane is winning the turnover battle. Despite playing at one of the quickest tempos in America, Tulane only turns it over 14% of the time. That should fare well against SMU's constant pressure. Plus, the Green Wave force turnovers on 18% of defensive possessions. Tulane should compete in Dallas if it wins the turnover battle.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
The Mustangs are a truly strange team. Will they actually contend for an AAC title, or are the metrics overrating them? I lean toward the latter. SMU has just one (!!) win over top-100 opponent (at Florida State in November) and only has great metrics as a result of blowing out bad teams. I don't think SMU is better than Memphis (despite its recent poor play) and it's probably closer to Charlotte (106th in KenPom) than North Texas.
Defense is the name of the game for Rob Lanier's team, which ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. The Mustangs ramp up defensive pressure after makes or dead-ball turnovers and force opponents to play fast and make snap decisions. SMU's pressure leads to an impressive defensive turnover rate of 17%. Perhaps the most impressive element of SMU's defense is it's ability to force tough mid-range shots. In the half-court, teams often try driving, which rarely works against SMU. So once the shot-clock dwindles, teams force up tough mid-range shots, which are low-percentage looks.
Moreover, SMU's offense is a major area of struggle. The Mustangs offense ranks 76th in offensive efficiency but has hardships in two key areas. The turnover rate is high (18%) and the Mustangs only shoot 35% from 3.
SMU, against Tulane, will need big performances from starting guards Zhuric Phelps and Chuck Harris. Phelps can score 20+ whenever, but only shoots 40% from the floor and 24% from 3. Harris provides a little more shooting than Phelps as he hits on 41% of his shots from 3.
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Tulane vs. SMU
Betting Pick & Prediction
I love Tulane in this spot. Coach Hunter's squad plays up (and down) to its competition, but I don't think the gap between Tulane and SMU is this drastic. From a pure talent level, Tulane might have more. Tulane isn't likely to win, but this spread looks way too big.
