USC vs Arizona Odds, Pick
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
USC and Arizona were predicted to finish as the two top teams in the final year of the Pac-12. However, this season has not gone according to plan at all for USC.
The Trojans are 8-9 overall and 2-4 in the Pac-12 following Saturday's 68-58 loss at Colorado. They've lost their last two games and will be looking to right the ship at Arizona on Wednesday night.
The Wildcats are 3-2 in the Pac-12 and two games behind first-place Oregon. They will look to bounce back after being upset at Washington State, 73-70, on Saturday.
With the loss, the Wildcats fell four spots to No. 12 in the AP Top 25 and enter this game at 12-4 overall.
Arizona heads to Oregon next Saturday, and it will likely be a double-digit favorite to win its next three games before then, including tonight's matchup.
The Wildcats swept the season series against the Trojans last season and won by 15 in Tucson. They've won the last five meetings and covered in four of them.
Tonight, Arizona is a double-digit favorite again, but its offense may lead the way.
USC Trojans
USC has gone just 4-7 since a 4-1 start to the season. However, continuity has been an issue all season.
Heralded freshman guard Bronny James didn't play until December while recovering from a cardiac arrest. He's still trying to find his footing. He entered the starting lineup for the first time at Colorado but has recorded just two points in his last three games.
The top recruit in USC's third-ranked 2023 recruiting class was guard Isaiah Collier, who's averaging 15.4 points per game. However, he's out four-to-six weeks with a broken hand.
To make matters worse, leading scorer Boogie Ellis and center Joshua Morgan also missed the last two games.
Ellis is questionable for Wednesday night's game, and his return would be a welcome sight for the Trojans. He's averaging 23.4 points per game in his last seven matchups against ranked opponents. He would also boost an offense that's just 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
While Ellis has been out, sophomore guard Oziyah Sellers has taken advantage of more opportunities.
Sellers scored a career-high 18 points at Colorado and is shooting 39% from 3 this season while knocking down 14 of his 36 attempts from 3. USC is shooting 36% from 3 as a team, but it would miss Ellis' team-leading 51 triples if he can't go.
The Trojans may need 3s to keep up with Arizona in this one.
USC ranks 189th in effective field goal percentage defense and 296th in 3-point percentage defense while sitting outside the top 100 in turnover percentage, defensive rebounding percentage and 2-point percentage field-goal defense.
The Trojans do get 2.3 blocks from Morgan and rank 54th in block rate. However, Morgan is also questionable for this matchup, and USC needs him to match Arizona's size inside.
Arizona Wildcats
Guard Caleb Love leads five double-digit scorers for Arizona. The North Carolina transfer has put himself into contention for All-Pac 12 honors by averaging 18.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.
His backcourt mate, Kylan Boswell, leads the team with four assists per game while shooting 42% from deep.
Boswell is one of four Wildcats shooting over 40% from 3, and the team is shooting 37.8% from 3 as a whole — the 26th-best mark in the nation. They will be licking their chops given how well they match up with USC's perimeter defense.
However, the foundation of a Tommy Lloyd-coached team begins down low.
Center Oumar Ballo is enjoying another strong season as a starter, averaging 12.6 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 59% from the field.
Freshman Motiejus Krivas spells him and is averaging just under eight points and five rebounds per game in only 13 minutes.
Arizona ranks fifth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and is currently in the top 10 for the third consecutive season. And this season, it's matching that effort on the defensive end.
The Wildcats sit third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They force 14.5 turnovers per game, and over nine of those are coming via steals.
While the turnovers create extra possessions, Arizona is great at limiting its opponents' opportunities. It ranks second nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and allows only 7.7 offensive rebounds per game.
USC vs. Arizona
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Arizona has lost four of its past eight games, it has had little difficulty at home. Still, laying 17 points is a lot without knowing the status of Ellis and Morgan.
Instead, I'll back the Wildcats' team total.
The number hasn't been released as of writing, but I project it around 88.5 points. It's fine if it's even a little higher considering Arizona is averaging 91.2 points per game. In fact, it has scored at least 90 points in seven of its eight home games this season and had 82 in the other.
The Wildcats might hit 10-plus 3s in this game. Plus, Love's slashing combined with Ballo and Krivas' scoring down low will give Arizona a few more ways to light up the scoreboard.
Coming off a season-low at Washington State, I expect the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way here.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Over
