Stanford vs UCLA Odds, Pick
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
The Conference of Champions season is in full swing. There's nothing more dangerous than the first game following a huge upset, and Stanford faces the UCLA Bruins in its first outing since downing Arizona.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford nearly pulled out a sweep over the Arizona schools last week, but a rough late-game stretch against Arizona State prevented the two wins.
The Cardinal used an elite offensive performance (100 points on 16-of-25 shooting from deep) to pull the stunning upset over the Wildcats.
It's a make-or-break season for Jerod Haase in Palo Alto, and it's looking more "break" than "make" right now. Although upsetting Arizona is great, Stanford's record and metrics don't put it in NCAA tournament territory. In order to break its NCAA tournament drought, it'll need a vastly improved performance in league play.
Stanford's offense looks significantly more dangerous with the emergence of freshman Kanaan Carlyle. The five-star recruit quickly emerged as a reliable option for the Cards, scoring 28 points in the win over Arizona.
Carlyle and Jared Bynum provide Stanford with two combo guards to operate the offense. I'm really buying stock into Stanford's current upside with Carlyle back and Andrej Stojakovic finding his groove.
7-footer Maxime Raynaud is valuable in more ways than one in this matchup. He leads Stanford in scoring (14.5 PPG) and rebounding (9.5 RPG). Raynaud will face a difficult assignment (UCLA's Adem Bona) and needs to dominate the defensive glass against UCLA's length.
Moreover, Stanford's shooting resurgence could shift. The Cardinal attempt triples on 40% of possessions, connecting on a 37.5% clip. While expecting Stanford to shoot 60% from deep is unrealistic, shooting around 40% from 3 in most games is good enough to beat most Pac-12 teams.
I mean, Stanford already beat the Pac-12's best contender, so nobody is unbeatable for the Cards.
The crux of Stanford's six losses is defensive issues. When your defense sits at 112th in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency, it'll typically lead to mixed results. Stanford has allowed 1.07+ points per possession in its past three games against San Diego State, Arizona State and Arizona.
For reference, Arizona State is the worst offensive team in the Pac-12 — worse than UCLA — so Stanford clearly is capable of allowing poor offensive teams to hit a hot streak.
Will Wednesday's action be a different story, or more of the same?
UCLA Bruins
This matchup is a pair of immoveable objects — Stanford's sieve of defense and UCLA's disastrous offense.
The Bruins came into the year ranked top-five in the Pac-12 preseason poll. It looked like a shoo-in for an NCAA tournament bid, assuming overseas imports Aday Mara and Jan Vide acclimated comfortably to the American game.
Instead, Vide missed the last chunk of games with an injury and was averaging only 2.7 points prior to injury. Meanwhile, Mara played zero minutes in UCLA's recent game against Oregon, so things haven't gone as planned.
UCLA's first conference road trip presented more concerns, as it scored fewer than 70 points in both games. The Bruins had a season-best shooting performance in the win over Oregon State before scoring 59 points on 3-of-17 shooting from deep against Oregon.
At this point, UCLA is what it is offensively. The team is young, and the roster is lean on options. The offense will remain inconsistent unless someone helps out Sebastian Mack and Bona in the scoring department.
My best guess for a player to step up is freshman Berke Buyuktuncel, who scored 14 points against Oregon on Saturday. It took Berke time to get into the college groove, following a handful of missed games due to injury. His emergence is significant, as Berke allows for more floor-spacing to help Mack drive and Bona operate at the rim.
The Bruins are shooting just 30% from 3. There are no signs indicating that the shooting issues are turning around, and I can't picture UCLA's offense getting better unless, obviously, it shoots better. That success hinges on Lazar Stefanovic hitting better than 28% from deep.
Stanford vs. UCLA
Betting Pick & Prediction
Maybe I'm the fool here by backing a team in a typical letdown spot, but I just can't take UCLA right now, despite it covering in both games last week.
Stanford could propel to another level by following up its strong performance against Arizona with a win (or cover).
The Bruins cover the spread at a 5-7-1 clip so far, while Stanford is 6-6, covering 50% of the time.
Neither team is elite at covering the spread, so there's no sharp side there.
I'm rolling with the better team. Go Cards!
Pick: Stanford +4
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