Stephen F. Austin vs UT Rio Grande Valley Odds
| SFA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 152.5 -115o / -105u | -500 |
| UTRGV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 152.5 -115o / -105u | +375 |
We're in the thick of WAC play, and we'll get some early afternoon hoops on Thursday. The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks face the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros in the great state of Texas.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
The Lumberjacks play all 13 scholarship players regularly due to their strong defensive pressure scheme. Constantly changing the personnel keeps players fresh when pushing in transition, pressing and forcing turnovers for 40 minutes.
Additionally, Kyle Keller-coached teams typically win on defense rather than offense.
The contrast in offensive and defensive success usually isn't this drastic, though. SFA ranks 240th in Offensive Efficiency and 47th in Defensive Efficiency. It's Stephen F. Austin's best defense since the 2015-16 season under Brad Underwood, and the second-worst offense in Keller's tenure.
If Stephen F. Austin's offense improves, it'll rest on the guards. The duo of Latrell Jossell and AJ Cajuste started for the Lumberjacks a season ago and posted more consistent numbers. Cajuste notably is shooting only 38% from the field and 21% from downtown, compared to 37% from deep last season.
Having an offense this inept isn't a sustainable formula to win games in WAC play.
That said, Stephen F. Austin is capable of hitting perimeter shots — it went 14-of-23 from deep in a 30-point rout of Drake. That's the Lumberjacks' premier win in the non-conference, and the offense showed up in droves.
Of course, shooting 60% from deep isn't likely, but even hitting 36% from deep would lead to some offensive flow, instead of hoping you force 20+ turnovers while turning them into baskets.
Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
It’s been a real struggle for UT Rio Grande Valley this year, as it sits at 4-9 entering conference play with a 315th KenPom rating.
The Vaqueros rely heavily on guards Elijah Elliott and Hasan Abdul-Hakim to carry the offense. Elliott transferred from Mount St. Mary’s, and he’s averaging 13 points for UTRGV.
The issue in Elliott’s game is a lack of efficiency, as he's shooting only 35% from the floor and 23% from deep.
Meanwhile, Abdul-Hakim is UTRGV’s best player. At 6-foot-8, Abdul-Hakim is a terrific ball-handler and loves attacking downhill. He attempts nearly six free throws per contest, which should work to his benefit against the aggressive Stephen F. Austin defense.
UTRGV only holds two wins over D-I teams, beating Incarnate Word and Texas A&M-Commerce. The four wins appear misleading, since two are games every D-I team should win.
Both defenses play an aggressive style, forcing plenty of turnovers. UTRGV ranks 60th in defensive turnover percentage, while Stephen F. Austin ranks seventh.
Each team also turns the ball over fairly often, but nobody in America turns it over more than SFA.
Expect a fast-paced game with no shortage of effort.
SFA vs. UTRGV
Betting Pick & Prediction
I truly think UTRGV is one of the bottom 20 teams in America, while Stephen F. Austin is still a fairly decent squad.
I'm fading the Vaqueros all the way, as their style of play is the exact opposite way to beat the Lumberjacks. UTRGV is shooting 25% from deep, turns the ball over way too often and plays extremely fast.
If you're drawing up a blueprint to beat SFA's pressure, it's the exact opposite of Matt Figger's scheme.
The most efficient way for UTRGV to score will come at the foul line — that's assuming it doesn't turn the ball over first.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin -9
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