Utah State vs Santa Clara Odds, Pick
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Santa Clara Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
There's many comparisons to draw from the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences. Both fall outside of the main "power conference" structure, and most of the schools reside on the West Coast.
So, teams from the rivaling conferences will regularly meet during the non-conference slate to condense travel and play high-level opponents.
Utah State Aggies
The Aggies regularly hit the head coaching lottery, and Danny Sprinkle is the latest entrant on the list. He made the NCAA tournament multiple times at Montana State and hopes to bring similar success to Logan, Utah.
Sprinkle is putting the Aggies on the tournament radar, as they're sitting at 9-1 and are 56th in KenPom. Only one of Utah State's nine wins came on the road (against Saint Louis), and it took its only loss at Bradley in overtime.
Utah State wants to get the ball inside and score in the paint. It poses an elite inside scoring attack, converting on 62% of 2-point field goals.
Great Osobor accounts for plenty of the inside scoring, averaging 19 points and nine rebounds per contest. Osobor will face two 7-footers in this one, so getting excellent post positioning is paramount for the Aggies' star player.
Furthermore, Santa Clara struggled to slow down New Mexico's Donovan Dent, who has a similar skill set to USU's Darius Brown II. In his first year at Utah State, Brown leads the nation with 8.0 assists per game. Look for Brown to try to get inside, while also dropping the ball to Osobor and other post-oriented players.
Utah State's biggest problem is perimeter shooting — it's connecting on just 29% of its 3-pointers. Brown is the only Aggie shooting above 40% from 3, and he's the only player that's attempted more than 30 3-pointers. It's a low-volume shooting attack, but the shooting struggles must subside against a formidable Santa Clara team.
Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara enters the game with a 7-3 record, with wins over Pac-12 opponents Oregon and Stanford. But recently, it suffered double-digit losses to Ohio State and California.
The metrics look at Santa Clara unfavorably, placing the Broncos 142nd in KenPom, which is fifth among WCC teams.
So, what should you make of Santa Clara? Its defense lacks consistency, allowing 84+ points in three of the last four games.
I'm concerned about Santa Clara's strange lineup combinations in recent games. Francisco Caffaro and Christoph Tilly both started against New Mexico for the first time, and it didn't work out. I can't imagine Herb Sendek rolls that lineup out again, instead focusing more on rotating the bigs and starting three guards with Johnny O'Neill at the four.
The Broncos need the guards to score against the stout Aggies defense.
The duo of Adama Bal and Carlos Marshall combine for 27.9 points per contest. A transfer from Arizona, Bal has displayed the ability to take games over, scoring 25 against Stanford and 22 against Oregon.
Santa Clara aims to push the pace more than its opponent, ranking 80th in Adjusted Tempo compared to Utah State's 220th ranking in tempo. The Broncos look best when attacking in transition instead of playing to their opponent's slower tempo.
Santa Clara's biggest offensive obstacle is turning the ball over, as it's handing it over on 19% of possessions (240th nationally), including a staggering 26 times against New Mexico.
Utah State vs. Santa Clara
Betting Pick & Prediction
Santa Clara is better than it played against New Mexico and California, and it'll show in this home tout against the Aggies.
Utah State is 0-2 ATS in road environments, and Santa Clara is motivated following a tough three-game stretch. The Broncos flash plenty of talent and experience to combat Utah State's dominant post-attack.
Take the Broncos, who could pull out the upset victory.
Winning road games in college basketball is a challenging task. That's why the NET rankings value road wins significantly more than home or neutral victories. So, Santa Clara catching more than a possession at home is a terrific bet in this matchup.
Pick: Santa Clara +4
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